Brazil's peanut kernel prices fell by 5% in February after a larger-than-expected peanut crop estimate from the National Supply Company (CONAB). However, prices increased by 7.5% in the first week of March, to USD 1.57/kg (in-shell) due to a risk premium for the domestic crop and poor production in neighboring Argentina. The peanut prices are following the normal seasonal trend of an increase in March owing to tighter inventories before the new crop comes in. Argentina's severe drought and frost damage have added to the risk premium in peanut prices in Brazil. Peanut prices should follow the normal seasonal trend, increasing in March, but decreasing as the harvest comes closer, but the possibility of reduced production estimates in Argentina, offset by higher production estimates in Brazil, could lead to price fluctuations.