Analysis

Opposite Price Trend between Major Almond Producers

Almond Kernel
Spain
United States
Published Aug 23, 2021
The spike of Spanish almond prices is so volatile that its value is up +96.1% YoY. Almond prices started to improve last February and soared to 9.5 USD per KG. Otherwise, almond prices fell drastically in the US by -22.2% YoY. The prices shown are way below, from the beginning of the year to the first week of August 2021. The high price increase from Spain which is considered very expensive most likely has the potential to make importers switch to US almonds. Spain, which is also the largest importer of the US, has lowered the value of its imports from the country in 2020. Most likely, Spain will choose to stabilize domestic prices first, before its imports can recover. On the other hand, a severe drought has threatened the US almond industry as it does not have enough water to irrigate the commodity. Crop damage that will reduce the total supply of almonds is also difficult to avoid. Producers in the US tend to sell almonds at lower prices to reduce the risk of production losses.
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