The global price of powdered milk in 2023 is forecasted to be flat
Published Jan 11, 2023
Tridge summary
The 2023 strategy report of Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Joint Stock Company (Mirae Asset) predicts Rabobank's research that the global milk supply recession after 5 consecutive quarters is likely to end from the fourth quarter of 2022. In 2023, milk supply is expected to recover in most of the region as production costs gradually cool, with the exception of Australia (as weather conditions become more extreme during the El Nino cycle).
Original content
Specifically, milk production from 7 major exporting countries is estimated to increase by 1% compared to 2022, enough to offset the decrease of 0.8% in 2022 and remain close to the output in 2021. The increased supply is expected to be absorbed by the reopening of China. China's milk import volume is expected to rebound after a decline of 17% year-on-year for whole milk powder and 24% for nonfat powdered milk in 9 months of 2022 (source: AHDB). However, global consumer demand is still facing the risk of recession as GDP forecasts of major economies are all being revised down. Therefore, Mirae Asset believes that the world price of raw milk powder in 2023 will remain at the level of 2021. Milk consumption is forecast to reach 40 liters/person/year by 2030 Vietnam's per capita milk consumption remains low at 27 liters/person/year, compared with 35 liters/person/year and 45 liters/person/year in Thailand and Singapore in 2021. Research and Markets forecasts , per capita milk ...
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