Global Avocado Exports Decrease by 6% YoY in 2022 on Reduced Mexican Crop

Fresh Avocado

Published Mar 27, 2023

A smaller 2022 avocado crop in Mexico is expected to have reduced global avocado exports to 2.4 million mt, a 6% YoY decrease. Despite a growing global demand for avocados, a reduction in supply was registered in 2022 with a direct consequence on prices in main importing markets. Exports of Mexican avocados fell by an estimated 11% YoY to 1 million mt after recording a low 2022/23 harvest of about 10% YoY due to a three-recovery season and unfavorable weather in some avocado-producing states. However, increased exports from other supplying countries have partially offset the reduced volume from Mexico. Peru, South Africa, Colombia, and Kenya are some of the emerging markets that have increased their global avocado supply.

According to a recently released report from The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reviewing the global avocado market in 2022, a smaller crop in Mexico in the 2021/22 season is expected to reduce global avocado exports in 2022 to below 2.4 million mt, a 6% YoY decrease. The report also showed that there were increased exports from other countries, which have partially reduced the volume from Mexico. However, the smaller crop from the world’s largest avocado producer drove to lesser global supply, directly impacting prices in main importing markets and important shifts in global avocado trade dynamics.

Exports of Mexican avocados are estimated to have fallen 11% YoY in 2022 to 1.1 million mt, decreasing by around 380 thousand mt. In fact, it is estimated that in the first eight months, Mexican avocado exports fell by 32% YoY, and since the ninth month, the export volume bounced back after the 2022/23 campaign started bringing larger volumes. The decrease in volume suffered in the first eight months of the year is directly attributed to a previously announced reduction in domestic production in the 2021/22 campaign.

Source: ITC

After a record volume crop in the 2020/21 season, threes needed to recover for the following season, so fewer productivity yields were expected, particularly in Michoacan. Additionally, insufficient rainfall and high temperatures also reduced production and yields in non-Michoacan-producing states. As a result, avocado production in Mexico was estimated to have dropped to 2.33 million mt in the 2021/2022 season, which represents 8% less compared to the previous campaign.

As a result of supply falling short of demand, the average export price of Mexican avocados shipped to the US climbed to USD 4.29/kg in 2022, representing a YoY increase of 87%. According to Tridge Price Chart, the wholesale price for avocados in the Mexico City market reached the historic monthly price of USD 5.58/kg on June 2022 when supply was at its low by the end of the 2021/22 season. Prices since then have decreased until reaching normal levels, with a monthly average price of USD 1.77/kg by December.

The shortage of Mexican avocados and its price increase directly impacted US prices. On June 22, US wholesale prices reached a historic high of USD 6.86/kg in the Los Angeles market. However, prices started trending down since then, driven by larger volumes arriving from South American suppliers. Peruvian avocados enjoyed high productivity and higher quality in 2022.

According to the Peruvian Ministry of Agriculture, in the first three quarters of 2022, Peru’s avocado exports increased by 10% YoY, with the total export volume for the entire year estimated at 600 thousand mt. This would correspond to Peru accounting for a 26% share of global avocado exports in 2022 and consolidate the country as the world’s second-largest supplier. Furthermore, the average export price of Peruvian avocados was USD 1.58/kg in 2022, which was 60% lower than that of Mexican origin. These competitive prices were one of the primary reasons for the excellent performance of Peruvian avocados in 2022.

Mexican avocados have previously accounted for 55 to 60% of global exports over the last years. However, in 2022, the Mexican market share has decreased to an approximately 40%. Strong market demand alongside high export prices has promoted the further development of the avocado industry and is stimulating greater investment in emerging supplying markets such as Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador. As a result, global avocado trade dynamics are currently shifting to broader participation from other suppliers from South America and Africa.