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W11: Weekly Dairy Update

Actualizado Mar 21, 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W11 in the global dairy landscape. In summary, Rabobank forecasts that global milk prices will drop from USD 9 to USD 8.50 in the 2022/23 campaign. Tridge’s analysis shows that GDT index dropped by 0.7% with an average price of USD 3.40K amid increasing cow milk production. The drought in Argentina has led to a lack of fodder which may result in a 20% to 35% (2.1M to 3.68M liters) decrease in milk production. Kenyan authorities suspended the importation of milk powder from Uganda in an attempt to cushion the domestic industry from surplus production and low producer prices. Lastly, Tanzanian milk registered an increase of 25% to 30% in prices because of the low supply of milk due to the dry and high-temperature season experienced in the Tanga region.


Rabobank Cuts Global Milk Price Forecast (Mar 13)

Dairy producers, processors, and consumers are all feeling the squeeze and a slight lift in global production, coupled with reduced demand, which led Rabobank to reduce its 2022/23 forecast from USD 9 to USD 8.50. In its Q1 2023 Dairy Quarterly report, Rabobank says global dairy chain participants have all faced significant pressures during the early part of 2023. The report says geopolitical unrest is one of the factors that continues to cloud supply and demand estimates.


Tridge Analysis: EU Farm Cowmilk Pay Prices Have Fallen Amid Increasing Cow Milk Production (Mar 15)

Since the beginning of Q3-22, countries along the north-western parts of Europe have reported increasing cow milk collection numbers. Even though numbers from other countries were negative, the cumulative EU collection number for the last quarter was positive: cumulative collection from September to December was up 1% YoY to 34.3M MT. April is the start of the new 2023/24 season but so far, the northern parts of Europe and the British Isles have seen colder snaps which are not perfect conditions for dairy cows. The good news is, going into April, mild temperatures at a little over 10 degrees Celsius should prevail which would auger well for milk production. Another price influencing factor towards the end of the season is the March Global dairy Trade auction which registered a fall in prices. The GDT index traded down 0.7% with an average selling price of USD 3.40K. This also gives an indication milk price is in a bearish territory now but a reported decrease in input cost has been the reason why farmers are not feeling the immediate effect of the fall in farm-gate prices. (Continue Reading)


Milk Supply in the Netherlands Increased by 4.1% In February (Mar 14)

For a comparable amount of milk delivered in February, we have to go back to 2020. Then dairy farms delivered 1.14M MT of milk, but February was one day longer in that year. The growth to the peak of this spring has started. The average daily quantity of milk supplied was 39.68K MT, 1.5% higher compared to January 2023. Fat production increased even faster in February, by 5.9% to 50.98K MT because the fat percentage is relatively high this year. The fat percentage in February was 4.59% compared to the average fat content of 4.51% in February 2022. The amount of condensed milk produced in January fell by almost 19% to over 29K MT compared with the same period last year. The Dutch production of consumer milk products fell by 5% to almost 77K MT. 


Calf Registrations in Ireland Edge Closer to 1M Mark (Mar 14)

According to the data, calf registrations stand at 988.24K head for the YTD, which is 2.01K head more than in 2022 when 986.23K calves had been registered at this point. However, the total number of calves registered in the week ending March 10, was 136.14K head, which is slightly down on the same period in 2022 (137.32K head). A total of 113.29K calves were registered to dairy dams in the week ending March 10, which is 2.29K more than the same period in 2022 when some 110,99K calves were registered to dairy dams. So far this year, the total number of calves registered to dairy dams stands at 853.59K, which is also ahead of 2022 when 842.76K calves were registered. 

United States

Water Shortages Challenge How Dairy Farmers Will Feed Their Cows in the Future (Mar 15)

The US is heating up and that could spell disaster for US livestock producers. According to the website, given the enormous size and heat capacity of the global oceans, it takes an enormous amount of thermal energy to raise Earth's average annual surface temperature, even by a small amount. Thomas Borch of Colorado State University shared that the western US is where the temperature is rising the fastest. The US drought monitoring map documents that much of the western US is shifting from moderate to exceptional drought "And that means 145M people are now living under these severe drought conditions," he shared at the 20th Anniversary Milk Business Conference in Las Vegas late last year. Couple that with the alarming water scarcity problems facing the western US, and alarm bells are going off, posing a legitimate question: “How are we going to feed our cows in the future?” 


Due to Lack of Fodder, More Than 2M Liters of Milk Could Be Lost (Mar 17)

Drought is the most important and pressing problem in the Argentine countryside, with an impact on each of the activities that make up the sector. Such is the case of the dairy, which as a consequence of the lack of rain and the extreme heat will have a considerably lower volume of food for the animals, causing a collapse of between 20% and 35% in milk production for this year. If it is taken into account that in 2022 a total volume of 10.5M liters was produced, it could be said that the production losses could amount to between 2.1M and 3.68M liters, which is, basically, almost all of the country's exportable supply. According to Snyder's work, this collapse in production would be totally linked to the shortage of fodder reserves, especially, to the impossibility of a significant number of producers being able to make corn silage.


Agricultural Organizations of Tatarstan in Russia Increased Daily Milk Yield To 4.5K MT (Mar 17)

According to the operational information of the regional Ministry of Agriculture and Food, as of March 17, in the agricultural organizations of Tatarstan, the gross daily milk yield amounted to 4.52K MT, which is 475MT more than the corresponding date in 2022. The average milk yield per cow was 20.9 kg, 2.1 kg more than a year ago. The leader of the republic in terms of gross daily milk yield in agricultural organizations is the Kukmorsky district amounting to 423.5 MT (53.8MT more than a year earlier), in second place is the Baltasinsky district (347.9MT by 29.4MT more), on the third is Atninsky (322.3MT, 7.3MT more). The lowest gross daily milk yield is in the agricultural enterprises of Kamsko-Ustyinsky (7.5MT, 10.5MT less), Spassky (18.9MT, 0.5MT more), and Cheremshansky (19.1MT, 2.6MT less). The highest daily milk yield per cow was recorded in the agricultural organizations of Atninsky (29.3 kg, 1.6 kg less than a year ago), Sabinsky (28.3 kg, 0.2 kg more), and Menzelinsky (27. 5 kg, 0.3 kg more) areas. This indicator is lowest in Kamsko-Ustyinsky (11.9 kg, 3.5 kg less), Novosheshminsky (12.2 kg, 0.2 kg more), and Mendeleevsky (12.4 kg, 0.4 kg less).


The Amount of Milk Collected in January Increased (Mar 14)

The amount of cow's milk collected throughout Turkey increased by 4.4% in January compared to the same month of the previous year and reached 873.97K MT. Drinking milk production made by commercial dairy enterprises increased by 9.3% in January compared to the same month of the previous year and became 145.10K MT. Yoghurt production by commercial dairy enterprises increased by 5.8% in January compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 91.43K MT. In this period, the amount of cow cheese increased by 17.2% annually to 63.48K MT, and the production of ayran increased by 13.1% to 61.41K MT.


Uganda Signs a Memorandum of Understanding With Algeria to Supply Milk Powder Worth USD 500M (Mar 17)

The Ugandan government signed a memorandum of understanding with Algeria to supply milk powder worth USD 500M in the first phase of the agreement. This was witnessed by both President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and Abdelmadjid Tebboune of Algeria in Algiers on March 12, 2023. The current annual milk production in Uganda is 2.81B liters. This trade deal is a big boost to the dairy industry in the country, which is currently the third biggest producer in the East Africa Community behind Kenya and Tanzania.


Interested in Designing and Participating in the Establishment of a Dairy Industry Enterprise (Mar 15)

Businesses in Israel are interested in designing and participating in the establishment of a dairy industry enterprise. This was announced by the press center of the Ministry of Economy and Industry during the visit of Minister Nikola Stoyanov to the Middle Eastern country. So far, for 6-7 years, information has periodically appeared that Saudi Arabia is interested in investing in the construction of a huge cow farm and feed plant in Bulgaria. The first statement was made in 2016, and the last one so far was after Minister Stoyanov's visit to Saudi Arabia in January of this year. Israeli farms have achieved some of the highest levels of milk production on their farms, an average of 12K liters per year per cow. At the same time, specialized software manages the cow farms, giving complete information on each animal in real-time and analyzing what needs to be changed in nutrition and breeding to maximize production, the MII points out. 


Kenya Suspends Milk Powder Imports From Uganda to Stabilize Domestic Price (Mar 13)

The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) has stopped the importation of milk powder from Uganda in an attempt to cushion the domestic industry from surplus production/supply and low producer prices. Kenya is one of Uganda’s largest milk markets, importing USD 38.2M worth of dairy from Uganda in 2020.


New Research to Tackle Cattle Methane Emissions in Africa (Mar 15)

Breeding more environmentally friendly dairy cows in African smallholdings could play an important role in the fight against climate change. Current research shows that Africa is responsible for around 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, with the continent’s population set to double by 2050, it is important to have mechanisms in place to mitigate these emissions and address a “critical research gap”. Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC) and ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute) have been awarded USD 1.62M (£1.5M) by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to help develop a selection index for the smallholder dairy system. It is hoped this will eventually result in the smallholder dairy ‘enviro-cow’, an animal that has less impact on the environment, is better at utilizing feed, and is altogether more productive and efficient. The project, which was officially launched in Ethiopia in W10, aims to better quantify part of the greenhouse gas emissions of African smallholdings. Researchers are set to use sophisticated methane-measuring equipment on dairy cows on a number of farms in sub-Saharan Africa, where 80% of land holdings are under ten hectares. 


Milk Prices up by 25% Over Low Supply in the Tanga Region of Tanzania (Mar 15)

Milk prices have increased between 25 and 30% over the last two months in the Tanga region; good news to farmers but bad news for consumers. The increased prices are being caused by a decreased supply of milk, as climate change, specifically the ongoing dry season and high temperatures, have dried pastures and water sources, which have stressed cattle health conditions. Livestock keepers who mostly depend on livestock as their main source of livelihood, also say the situation has affected their income, as the quantities of milk they are currently producing are lower than during the last quarter of 2022. The survey by the Guardian has shown that one liter of cattle milk is currently sold at between USD 0.51 to 0.56 from 0.43 (1.2K TZS to 1.3 K TZS from 1K TZS) recorded between December 2022 and January 2023. The survey carried out for a number of days this month in the Muheza, Tanga, Mkinga, and Pangani districts, which are the main sources of milk, has found that the increased market stress is due to a rise in demand and low production.

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