Opinión

W19: Dairy Update

Leche de vaca
Rusia
Publicado 17 de may. de 2023
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W19: Dairy Update

In W19 in the dairy landscape, Tridge’s data analysis indicates that a seasonal increase in milk production in Western Europe at the start of the spring flush is helping push cow milk prices and dairy commodity prices down. Due to this situation, Tridge's German National Cow Milk Powder Index fell from USD 802/kg in the last week of April to USD 636/kg on May 8th, down 20.7%. Also, Tridge’s French Cow Milk Powder Index fell to USD 3817.5/MT over the week. Barring any anomaly in the weather, milk prices are expected to stay subdued throughout the spring flush. In the first two months of 2023, Polish milk export volumes to China declined from 16,848MT to 6,448MT, lower by nearly 66% YoY, while export value dropped to USD 5.331K from USD 10.855K, leading China to fall from the second position of the milk export market to the fourth position. This is attributed to the Chinese dairy market becoming more difficult and demanding every year due to policy changes as well as Chinese milk and milk products becoming more popular as a result of promotional campaigns. Furthermore,10 years ago the Chinese government launched a modernization program that led to a cost, assortment, and price structure of products that is constantly evolving, which makes it difficult for exporters to expand. However, PKO BP experts expect Chinese milk demand to improve due to the withdrawal of the zero COVID policy, the drop in freight prices, and better performance of the Chinese economy.

In Q1, Russian milk production in all categories reached 7.3MMT, an increase of 3.7%, with agricultural organizations rising by 6.4% to 4.9MMT and peasant farm enterprises increasing by 1.5% to 564.4K MT. This is linked to the increase in the productivity of the Russian dairy herd and the use of modern technologies in animal husbandry. The average milk yield per cow in agricultural organizations except for micro-enterprises in the January-March period amounted to 1990 kg, 7.5% more than in 2022. As of May 10th, the daily gross milk yield of farms in the commercial sector of the Krasnodar Territory in Russia amounted to 3.81K MT, up 10.9% YoY, with most milk per day coming from the Kanevsky (518.3MT), Vyselkovsky (354.5MT), Pavlovsky (352.1MT), Novokubansky (265.6MT), and Bryukhovetsky (213.5MT) districts. Large and medium-sized agricultural enterprises accounted for 87.1% of milk share, up 11.8% YoY, small agricultural enterprises contributed 4.4% of milk output, an increase of 13.7% YoY, and peasant farms and individual entrepreneurs produced 325.4MT, 1.3% more than in the same period in 2022. The increase in milk production in the region is attributed to an advance in the productivity of forage cattle and an escalation in their numbers.

According to TÜİK, the amount of Turkish cow milk collected by dairy companies in March 2023 amounted to 912K MT, up 6.2% YoY. As a result, Turkish drinking milk output reached 139K MT, up 11% YoY, yogurt production amounted to 99K MT, an increase of 2.9% YoY, and cheese production from cow’s milk totaled 67K MT, a growth of 3.4% YoY. However, ayran and butter production declined to 61.63K MT and 8K MT, down 2.9% YoY and 28% YoY, respectively. Lastly, the Iranian government aims to stabilize milk prices with the cooperation of milk producers at USD 0.36 per liter until the end of the year. The Iranian Farmers’ Union notes that the increase in raw milk prices was due to labor costs, energy carriers, and transportation. 

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