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W3: Weekly Dairy Update

Actualizado 23 de ene. de 2023
Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W3 in the global dairy landscape. In summary, European milk production is expected to decrease by 1.1% annually by 2032 while the number of dairy cows is anticipated to fall below 20M heads in 2023. In Tatarstan, Russia, the authorities aim to introduce a new support measure for cattle breeding in 2023. Also in Russia, The volume of cow's milk production in Donetsk more than doubled in 2022, to 28.4K MT. Ukrainian cheese imports dropped 38.8% by the end of 2022. Lastly, it is expected that Ukrainian cheese exports will decrease in 2023 because of the low selling price in international markets, especially in the EU.


Europe: Milk Production in the EU by 2032 Will Decrease by 1.1 % Annually (Jan 16)

According to PKO BP analysts, the increase in milk prices is a factor that has a short-term impact on supply increases, despite the smaller number of dairy cows in the EU and the increase in production costs, which was recorded in the EU-27 in October 2022 (+1.6%). However, the medium-term development of the sector is limited by the uncertainty related to the planned changes in agricultural policy. EC forecasts indicate a decrease in EU milk production by 2032 on average by 1.1%/year. Milk production in Poland continued to record strong increases compared to other EU countries. According to the Central Statistical Office, the domestic purchase of milk in the period of Jan-Nov '22 increased by 2.2% on an annual basis. However, there is a risk that the pace of production growth will slow down in the coming months. In the December estimation of the harvest in Poland in 2022, the Central Statistical Office indicated a decrease in the production of corn for silage by 11% YoY, which may suggest a depletion of the domestic feed base on dairy farms in 1h23.

Europe: In 2023, the Number of Dairy Cows in the EU Will Decrease (Jan 19)

It is predicted that in 2023 the number of dairy cows in the European Union will fall below 20M heads. Compared to 2016, this is less by 1.7M heads, and compared to 2021 it is short of 564K heads. Despite the steady annual increase in cow productivity, the decline in herds has reduced the production of cow's milk in the EU, which is forecasted at 143M MT in 2023. The planned January 1 implementation of the new Common Agricultural Policy and the accompanying Farm to Fork (F2F) strategy is likely to add uncertainty to the dairy sector in 2023. Drought across the EU in the summer of 2022 hampered feed and milk production as production costs for energy and fertilizers increased, pushing up selling prices for raw milk.

Russia: Tatarstan Will Introduce a New Support Measure for Cattle Breeding (Jan 19)

In 2023, Tatarstan will introduce a new support measure to compensate for part of the cost of raising cattle in the amount of USD 1.21M (83.3M rubles). To stimulate milk production, USD 0.019B (1.3B rubles) of subsidies are provided, which is USD 1.63M (112M rubles) more than last year, said Marat Zyabbarov, head of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the Republic of Tatarstan. This year, the number of cattle in the farms of the republic is planned to be increased to 643K MT.

Russia: In the DPR, Cow’s Milk Production More Than Doubled in 2022 (Jan 22)

The volume of cow's milk production in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) more than doubled in 2022, to 28.4K MT. This was announced to TASS by the Deputy Prime Minister of the DPR, Minister of Agro-Industrial Policy and Food of the DPR Artem Kramarenko. The head of the ministry added that, according to the results of the procurement company in 2022, in general, the dairy cattle breeding industry of the republic is provided with rough and succulent fodder by more than 100%. The total volume of hay harvesting from the 2022 harvest amounted to about 11.3K MT, 110% of the fulfillment of the annual plan, which is 2.4K MT more than in 2021. Taking into account the carry-overs of previous years, the provision of cattle with hay of own production amounted to 126%.

Canada: Publication of Breeding Value for Methane Emissions From Dairy Cows (Jan 20)

The breeding value was developed by the University of Guelph in collaboration with the Canadian Milk Control Organizations. Research was first carried out on 500 cows, where methane emissions were measured using so-called sniffers. This was then expanded with the 700K 'milk mid-infrared spectroscopy data' of dairy cows in the first lactation from the milk control. In April, Lactanet will publish the methane efficiency breeding values, which producers can use to significantly reduce methane emissions in their herd. For genomic bulls it is 70% reliable and genetic selection alone is estimated to reduce emissions by 20 to 30% by 2050. 

Morocco: The Rise in Prices Explained by the Increase in the Cost of Imported Raw Materials (Jan 16)

The production of sterilized milk and its derivatives depends on raw materials imported from abroad. Impacted by the global crisis, dairy products in Morocco have increased in price. On Jan 16, UHT milk costs between USD 1.09 (11DH/L) and USD 1.18 (12 DH/L). This increase, linked to economic factors, negatively influences the activity of Moroccan breeders and farmers. Classified in the category of services at liberalized prices, sterilized milk, certain milk derivatives and infant milk have seen their prices increase. The Minister of Economy and Finance, Nadia Fettah Alaoui, said that this increase is directly linked to the increase in the cost of distribution due to high fuel prices. 


Ukraine: 38.8% Less Imported Cheese by the End of 2022 (Jan 18)

In 2022, Ukraine imported 33.8K MT of cheese, which was 38.8% less than a year earlier. This was evidenced by the data of the State Customs Service. In monetary terms, the import of cheese last year amounted to USD 182.2M, 30% less than in 2021. Cheeses were imported to Ukraine mainly from Poland (47%), Germany (17.6%), and the Netherlands (9.7%). The export of Ukrainian cheeses for 2022 amounted to 9K MT, 30.4% more than for 2021. It brought in USD 42.3M, which was 58.4% more than the previous year. The largest buyers of domestic cheeses in 2022 were Kazakhstan (38%), Poland (25.6%) and Moldova (21.3%).

Ukraine: Ukrainian Exports of Cheese Will Decrease in 2023 (Jan 19)

The holidays are coming to an end and again the activity of cheese sales is expected to fall. However, cheesemakers are in no hurry to stimulate sales with reduced prices. Moreover, some domestic manufacturers increase the price, despite, and yes, quite high profitability. Cheesemakers have to significantly reduce export prices or even refuse foreign sales altogether. It is not surprising, because European cheeses can be bought cheaper. Therefore, Ukrainian cheese producers will probably refuse to deliver to the EU, leaving traditional sales markets in Kazakhstan or Moldova behind. That is, the export of cheese will drop significantly. Already in December, it decreased more than twice. Well, in general, during the year, due to the adjustment of supplies to the EU, the export of semi-hard cheese increased by almost 70% to 7.7K MT. This is a record volume since 2014, when Ukraine still exported the product to Russia. Last year, for some time, Ukrainian cheesemakers were pleased by a significant reduction in the import of cheese.

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