Opinión

W49: Weekly Dairy Update

Mantequilla de leche de vaca
Australia
Queso cheddar
Nueva Zelanda
Publicado 13 de dic. de 2022
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Tridge's global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W49 in the global dairy landscape. In summary, Oceania’s milk output is expected to decrease 4-5% due to persistent wet weather conditions that has affected several regions while the milk prices remained stable at high levels of FOB USD 0.53/L (AUD 0.79/L) to USD 0.60/L (AUD 0.88/L). Spanish cow milk prices continue to rise while production drops with prices in October reaching an average of USD 0.59/litre, up 12.3% MoM and up 57.5% YoY compared to October 2021. In Ukraine, it is expected that the milk production can reach 5.5MT in 2030 following three stages of development in the dairy industry. In conclusion, US domestic milk consumption returned to positive annual growth during Q3 2022 for the first time since the beginning of 2022 with cheese being one of the main drivers of this positive development.

Milk

Australia: Oceania’s Milk Output Expected to Fall 4-5% Due to Persistent Wet Weather Conditions

Oceania milk supplies are only getting worse as the wet conditions on the North Island are now likely to drag peak NZ output down by around 4-5%. Australia’s export availability is also diminishing due to persistent rain and flooding affecting producers in several regions. Milk output is expected to fall 4-5% over the current season. China’s eventual recovery from COVID-19 restrictions remains a key factor in the coming months. Milk availability appears balanced in retail according to price and cost indicators, while demand in food service and convenience will continue to suffer from lower consumer mobility. Milk prices have remained stable at high levels of FOB USD 0.53/L (AUD 0.79/L) to USD 0.60/L (AUD 0.88/L).

Spain: New Rise in the Price of Cow’s Milk With a Drop in Production

The trends observed in the cow's milk sector in recent months continue: the rise in prices continues, the decline in production and the decrease in the number of farms. The data from the Ministry of Agriculture for the month of October show a weighted average price of USD 0.59/litre (0.556 euros), which represents an increase of 12.3% compared to September and 57.5% compared to October 2021.

South Korea: Dairy Cows and Genetic Resources Are Sent to Nepal

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs announced on December 7 that it will transport 101 Korean dairy cows, seedlings, and cow semen for artificial insemination to Nepal by air on the 22nd, together with Heper Korea, an international organisation. This is the first time that Korea has supported dairy cows and live cows overseas. 101 dairy cows were prepared with crowd funding from Heper Korea, donations from domestic dairy farmers, and support from Nonghyup Economic Holdings Livestock Economy and Seoul Milk Cooperative. The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs will give cows to small farmers in the model dairy farming village in Sinduli District, which is promoted by the Nepalese government, and then provide training to each farm. In addition, domestic experts will be dispatched to implement follow-up measures and specifications will be managed through a mobile app. In Nepal, with a per capita income of USD 1,223 last year, 80% of the total population lives in rural areas. Dairy farming is an important industry, accounting for 9% of Nepal's gross domestic product (GDP). The annual milk production per cow of indigenous breeds in Nepal is 880 kg, and that of hybridised breeds is 3,000 kg, which is less compared to the milk production of dairy cows in Korea (9,000 to 10,000 kg).

Morocco: The Government of Morocco Is Taking Urgent Measures to Ensure That the Market Is Funded With Milk

The Minister of Agriculture, Marine Fishing, Rural Development, Water and Forests, Muhammad Siddiqui, said that the Ministry of Agriculture is working to take a set of urgent measures with the aim of maintaining the balance of the milk production chain, by setting up a continuous tracking system in partnership with professionals to ensure sufficient supply to meet the demand of this material. During the session of oral questions in the House of Representatives on December 5, it was that the reason behind the decline in milk production is due to the continuing drought and the high prices of feed, noting that the ministry has taken measures to support the import of milking wheels, which includes 20 thousand heads and ranges from 2500 to 5000 dirhams per wheel. The government official indicated that the ministry is working to support the production of milking wheels of authentic varieties locally, at about 4,000 dirhams, and this is direct support, as well as supporting and legalising the process of artificial insemination of cows. The same spokesman added that the ministry will continue the process of supporting and distributing compound feed to dairy cow producers, not to mention facilitating the temporary import of powdered milk and butter in order to manufacture some milk derivatives. It was confirmed that the ministry has taken measures to temporarily facilitate the import of dairy products.

Ukraine: Milk Production Can Reach 5.5 Million MT

Vadym Chagarovskyi, chairman of the board of directors of the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine, said this during the conference "Dairy business in conditions of war". “From 2022 to 2030, it is necessary to foresee the development of industrial milk production: construction of farms, development of the industry, high quality milk and livestock of 1 million heads. Milk production can reach 5.5 million tons," says Vadym Chagarovskyi. According to him, there is only one way for individual farms to transform into family dairy farms. " Although there are certain problems: the issue of land and investments has not been resolved. In 2030, 6 million MT of milk should be processed. In fact, we need to double milk processing in eight years, from the 2.7 million MT expected in 2022," says Vadym Chagarovskyi. The Union of Dairy Enterprises offers three stages of development of the dairy industry. The first stage, for the period of hostilities, is the preservation of the cattle population through the restoration of state support programs. The needs of the dairy industry in credit working capital amount to about USD 0.081 million (3 billion hryvnias). The second stage of development, the post-war period ( one to two years after the war), foresees an increase in the number of cattle and milk production by 10-15%, and the expansion of export markets. Financing of this stage requires USD 150 million. The third stage is the creation of a modern dairy industry. In this case, the most important thing is the training of personnel.

Ukraine: 199 kg of Dairy Products for Every Ukrainian Is the Forecast of the Dairy Industry for the Current Year

The dairy industry of Ukraine and other sectors of the agrarian sphere are not going through the best of times. According to the State Statistics Service, in 2022, the total number of cows in all categories of farms decreased by 9%, accordingly, the volume of milk production also decreased. However, despite the current situation and hostilities, there are also positive developments. For example, the share of cows and the volume of milk produced in agricultural enterprises remained. For the first time in recent years, the trade balance for the dairy group of goods for January-October 2022 was positive and amounted to USD 103.8 million. According to the balance of demand and supply of milk and dairy products in the current year, the forecast of milk production under optimistic scenarios may be 7.5 million MT. This will allow in the current conditions to provide each person with 199 kg of dairy products. Currently, the Government has developed a whole package of financial support tools specifically for farms in the dairy and processing industries.

Butter

Poland: Dairy Products in Positive Territory Again

At the auction on December 6 this year. Dairy products rose for the second time in a row. The last session on the Global Dairy Trade exchange ended with an increase in the general price index by 0.6%. The result of the last auction contributed to the increase in quotations of most categories of offered dairy products. The largest increase was in the case of buttermilk powder (+ 4.7%). On the other hand, the largest decrease was recorded in the case of butter (-1.9%). During the last GDT session, 29,570MT of dairy products were sold, which was slightly more than 500MT higher than the result obtained at the previous auction. The results of the last GDT session are as follows: Anhydrous milk fat increased by 1.8%, Butter decreased by 1.9%, Buttermilk powder increased by 4.7 percent, Cheddar cheese increased by 1.8 percent, Lactose decreased by 0.8%, Skimmed milk powder increased by 1.7%, Whole milk powder increased by 0.1%.

Cheese

US: Cheese Sales Boost Dairy Consumption Growth

Total US domestic milk consumption across all products returned to positive annual growth during the third quarter for the first time since the beginning of 2022. Increased consumption of all types of cheese was one of the main drivers of this positive development. Meanwhile, US dairy export volumes eased slightly during the third quarter from the previous quarter's record pace, but kept the US dairy industry on track to set another record this year. Year-to-Q3 performance was 18% of total US milk solids production, significantly above the current 2021 record of 17.3% milk after many months below last year's levels. Despite this greater offer, dairy prices, which had been falling in recent months, found a floor and recovered in some cases during the month of October. Retail price inflation for all items, for food and beverage categories, for dairy products and for most individual dairy products was lower in October than the previous month.

Turkey: Food Inflation Ravaged the Bazaar Market

Price increases in some food products are frequently on the agenda. The food product that has been mentioned the most with the price hikes in recent times has been cheddar cheese. The price of cheddar cheese almost competes with meat. While the kilo of cubed meat is sold for USD 8.05 (150 liras), the kilo of cheddar is up to USD 10.73 (200 liras) in some markets. On the other hand, the price of rice, which is the most used product in Turkish cuisine like rice, has increased by 145 percent in the last year. While there was a 162% increase in milk, there was a noticeable increase in the high hikes in pasta and dairy products. 

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