On-the-Ground Updates

2022 Global Macadamia Forecast and 2021 Season Review

Elton Greeve
Published Sep 26, 2022
The 2022 global macadamia crop is forecast to be up 12% on the 2021 season, driven primarily by forecasted production increases in the South African and Chinese crops. This is despite Australia forecasting a 10% decrease compared with last season as a direct result of the severe weather and flooding in New South Wales and South-East Queensland. The revised Australian forecast is 49,340MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture and 52,900MT in-shell at 10% moisture. This is still a realistic expectation given Australia’s largest producing region of Bundaberg is enjoying a very strong season. South Africa’s forecast for 2022 is 68,522MT in-shell at 3.5% moisture, a 22.2% increase on last season.

In the 12 months to June 2022, global macadamia kernel imports to the top five markets combined grew 8% compared to the prior 12 months. All major markets indicated growth, except for Japan (-5%) and Australia (-4%). The major markets of Europe and US were up 9% and 10% respectively. Total kernel imports to China/Hong Kong were recorded at a high of 3,900MT, up 23%. Average price per kg data for imports indicates significant downward price pressures are continuing, particularly in the ingredient styles.

Total in-shell imports to China for the period July 2021 to June 2022 were the highest on record for many years, being reported at 38,656MT. China Customs data highlights the major import destinations of nut-in-shell are South Africa and Australia. Imports from Australia were at 13,685MT, up 15%, and South African imports at 14,084MT with an increase of 94% for this period. Australian macadamia sales continue to increase year on year following COVID-19 disruptions.

The industry recorded strong trade in the 12 months for the MAT period (July to June), up 8% overall. The increase was driven by strong kernel sales to China/Hong Kong with increases also seen in Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries. Sales to the Australian, South Korean and other European markets softened slightly, while Germany was stable. Despite the upward sales trend, market conditions remain tough given the increase in supply, intensified price pressure in the ingredient market, and ongoing challenges with the supply chain.
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