Lower Cereal Harvest in the EU Over the Next Decade Due to Reduced Planting Area
Market & Price Trends
Irene Fantauzzi
Published Dec 13, 2022
The EU's total cereal area is projected to decline marginally to 57.2M hectares by 2032, compared to 57.8M hectares in 2020–22, driven by a decline in barley and maize and an increase in wheat production area. Barley and wheat yields are expected to stagnate, while maize yields may still increase due to yield improvements in the eastern EU countries. Consequently, cereal yield is expected to decrease by 1.1MMT in 2032, which is below the average cereal production of 308MMT in 2020–2022. Domestic use is expected to decline, even with an expected increase in human consumption of 3.9% compared to 2020–2022, due to a 6.1% drop in animal production and feed use. On the trade side, the EU will remain competitive but will face strong competition from other key global players. It will continue to be a net exporter of wheat and barley and a net importer of maize and rice.
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