Domestic demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil consists of 65% household and 35% industrial usage. Household demand decreased significantly in March-May 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war while industrial demand lost 90% of its consumption. Where possible, industrial use was replaced by rapeseed, soybean and palm oil. Industrial sunflower oil demand is expected to remain low until at least the end of 2022. The total demand in the domestic market is 30% lower compared to the previous year.
Global production of soybeans is expected to be 25MMT higher in the 2023 season while rapeseed production is expected to increase by 8MMT which will put further downward pressure on demand for Ukrainian sunflower oil. The price range towards the end of August 2022 is expected around USD 1000/MT and market liquidity will be high.
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