Anticipated Surge in Vietnamese Pepper Prices Post-Tet With Global Production at a Five-Year Low in the 2023/24 Season

After the Tet holidays, Vietnamese pepper prices are anticipated to rise due to increased purchasing power from Chinese traders, particularly at the start of Q2 of each year. Despite the ongoing economic crisis, other markets are expected to resume buying activities, potentially leading to a further decline in year-end inventories.

Experts predict a decrease in pepper production in the three major producing countries: Vietnam, India, and Indonesia. Consequently, global pepper production for the 2023/24 season is projected to reach its lowest point in the last five years.

Climate change has impacted the 2023/24 harvest season, causing a delay compared to the previous year. Vietnam's pepper production in 2024 is estimated to be around 170 thousand tons, marking a 10.5% year-over-year (YoY) decrease.