Vannamei Shrimp Prices in Thailand Plunge to Multi-Year Low, Further Downside Seems Limited

During the second week of September 2023, vannamei shrimp wholesale prices in Samut Sakhon, Thailand, plunged 3% week-over-week (WoW), 10% month-over-month (MoM), and 28% year-over-year (YoY) to THB 101.25/kg, their lowest level since at least three years.

This is a reflection of global shrimp prices as well. The Urner Barry HLSO Farm-Raised White Shrimp Index also dropped to fresh multi-year lows during the week starting September 11, 2023.

As mentioned in a recent Opinion, global shrimp prices remain notably subdued mostly due to an oversupplied market. Global demand recovery following the pandemic was overestimated and global imports plunged after H2 2022. Yet, demand has not been that bad compared to its recent history. In fact, US imports in July rose YoY for the first time in 15 months. Moreover, they are still above their 5-year average. However, prices are still dropping to new lows. This points to an ongoing oversupplied market driven by increasing production. This is led by Ecuador, the world's largest shrimp exporter and which also has the lowest export prices.

Nonetheless, current low prices and margins are unsustainable for many producers. In fact, as reported in a separate analysis, expected production cuts in India are already reflecting higher prices domestically. This is expected to be replicated eventually in the rest of the world as the market returns to balance. Therefore, further downside for Thai shrimp prices is seen limited.