Almond trading value on March

The Almond Board of California released the March Position Report detailing shipments decreased by 8.1% of USD 319.90M, compared with USD 348.19M in 2021. YTD, the industry is down 14.95%. Commitments are now up 2.55% compared with this point last year, a fantastic turnaround compared with where the industry was. The new monthly sales were USD 287.28M (USD 248.10M last March). The industry is now 73% sold against total supply. The domestic market posted a recovery, flat on last March’s shipments.

This report has to be considered a good position for California. Many were expecting a lower shipment number, hindered by the logistical issues of around USD 287.28M. However, pressure will continue. Despite the positive numbers, it still looks doubtful that the carryout will get below USD 1175.22M, and California will need to keep moving the market sold position along. March represented a perfect sales month for all regions. India was incredibly active, as the in-shell price pushed up above USD 2.00 FAS.

After three weeks of lack of trading at the end of February (frost and then Ukraine/Russia), California has pushed this market the hardest, with plenty of pollinator material still to move while NP tightens. Middle East and China were also chasing NPX kernels, but it is tough to find this material, and differentials over pollinators have opened up. Looking at these numbers alone, we would likely see a firm market, but the TNT estimate is expected to influence that.