Large Volumes of South African Oranges Expected in Europe in W39/40, Prices to Drop

The new cold treatment protocols imposed by the EU on orange imports from South Africa have kept the Netherlands market somewhat short in 2022. This has allowed prices to remain stable, with only slight variations, but generally above the average prices observed in recent years. However, this is expected to change in about two weeks according to importers and exporters of South African products based in the Netherlands.

Although the price in W37 remains around USD 17.00-18.00/15kg box (1.13-1.2/kg), the price is expected to drop to USD 1.00/kg from W39 to 40. This is because the South African campaign is nearing its end, and many exporters want to reach Europe before the duty free period comes to an end on 14 October.

To this end, approximately 3 million boxes left South Africa for Europe during W36. During W37 and W38, one big and final shipment is planned, with approximately 3 million additional boxes. Based on these increased volumes, the market is expected to trend downward, but remain above USD 1.00/kg. Most South African exporters shipped to Europe based on returns above USD 12.00/15kg box CIF. It is estimated that this volume should be absorbed without major problems by the European market before the start of the Spanish season.