FAO Further Reduces Its Global Grain Harvest Forecast for 2022

The FAO has further cut its forecast for global cereal production in 2022, which now stands at 2,756MMT, a 2% drop YoY, according to its latest report on the supply and demand of cereals. The reduction is mainly due to poor corn production prospects in Ukraine, where the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has made post-harvest operations prohibitively expensive. The FAO also lowered its forecast for world wheat production for 2022, but despite this cut, the new figure of 781.2 MMT would still be a record high. As for rice, global production is expected to fall 2.4% YoY compared to 2021's record high.

Additionally, planting of the 2023 winter wheat crop is underway amid concerns about the high price of agricultural inputs and adverse weather conditions in the US and Russia. In the southern hemisphere, coarse grain crops are being planted, and official forecasts in Brazil point to record planting areas of maize.