Nordic barley may be a sourcing option for shallow water markets as trade disruptions are driving up the pace.

Beer production is expected to decline 7.8% at 2020. Even though demand is progressively coming back, restrictions are still moving the consumption indoors. The Chinese market can also be referred in this scenario as a strong indicator, as beer stocks were down 3% in the first-half of the year, considering the production halt in the country that took place on Feb-Mar as a reflection of the Covid-19. Beer volume also plummeted for main manufacturers such as Heineken (-11.5%) , ABInBEV (-13.4%), Carlsberg (-7.7%) just to name a few.
In the Northeast European region the Scandinavian outlook points out to be negative with a 5% stock decrease by the end of the year, summer supply and demand seems to be balancing and recovering, however new consumption trends led to a smaller hectoliter output all the way through until now. In that sense it is unlikely to fully recover until the end of the year as pubs and bars are responsible of pulling a meaningful amount of that. Malting barley equivalent forecast states that Denmark and Sweden put together will be responsible for 167 thousand tons demand to cover beer production, including 550 craft brewer manufacturers, of which it represents around 20% of the beer production, both countries considered.
At the other hand origins are pressing on to fill Aussie supply gap at this moment as China tariff wall imposition is making a havoc on supply change flows. Nordic origins may be looking for export channels if a competitive landscape is then resuming itself possible considering first industrial capacity and second their supply balance against German’s, Spanish and French stocks, of which seem to have a fair malting quality, and proportinable more volume to trade.

Denmark and Sweden have an installed malting capacity potential around 0.5M mt, where a 18% overstock is expected if we look to the malting barley forecast (0.6M) if all malting stocks are applied. 20/21 campaign is closing at 5.2M tons of barley average, where 67% are feed quality related.