La Niña slows soybean planting and narrows Brazil’s 2025/26 production outlook

the consultancies that have downgraded their production estimates. The firm reduced its initial projection from 178.5 million tonnes to 175 million tonnes. This is now below the latest estimate from the National Supply Company (Conab), which forecasts soybean output at 177.6 million tonnes — 3.6% higher than the 171.48 million tonnes harvested in 2024/25. According to Pine director Ale Delara, soybean planting is behind schedule from Minas Gerais northward. In Paraná, fieldwork is almost complete except in the eastern region, where heavy rains caused delays. Some areas in western Mato Grosso also reported drought-related issues leading to replanting. As of November 23, Conab reported that planting had reached 78% of the expected area, compared with 83.3% at the same time last year. The consultancy Datagro also trimmed its forecast, though it remains relatively optimistic. Its estimate was reduced from 183.2 to 182.9 million tonnes. Analysts highlight that delayed planting caused ...