Supply pressure keeps rice prices falling

The rice market went through the second half of 2025 with prices on a downward trajectory, reflecting a very loose supply and demand balance, according to Itaú BBA. Prices reached around R$ 53 per bag in November, a level 50% lower than that recorded a year earlier and which limits the producer's margin in the face of the ample availability of the grain and weakened demand. The expectation that exports would help alleviate the internal pressure did not materialize. The unfavorable exchange rate and external competition reduced competitiveness, leaving shipments below expectations. As a result, the projection is for elevated carryover stocks at the beginning of the 2025/26 crop, estimated by Conab at over 2 million tons. The progress of planting through November confirmed the expected reduction in area, a direct result of the compressed margins and the lower use of technology as a cost control strategy. Even with the prospect of lower production, the weather tends to favor the ...