The situation of soybean surplus in China may extinguish the export hopes of the United States.

Traders and analysts warn that the massive stockpiles at ports and in national reserves, along with low crushing margins, are limiting the demand for additional purchases from Beijing. "State-owned companies may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based consultancy AgRadar. "Even if exempt from taxes, the margins are still negative and Brazilian soybeans are cheaper." Following a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in October 2025, Washington officials said China had agreed to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year and 25 million tons annually for the next three years. China has not publicly committed to these deals, despite suspending retaliatory tariffs on imports from the U.S. Meanwhile, according to traders and analysts, state-owned procurement company COFCO has only placed a few orders for delivery in December and January. Rising stockpiles, ...