US Almond Exports to Benefit from Drought and Frost in Spain

Published 2022년 7월 12일

Drought and frost-related damages impacted almond production in the Northern regions of Spain in April, causing an approximate 29.27% YoY production decrease for the 2022-23 crop. At the same time, US almond exports significantly increased in May-22, at 193.4 million lbs, which was the highest monthly export in the 2021/22 export season. Due to logistics constraints in the US, almond exports have declined in volume by 13.17% YoY since the beginning of the year. However, exports since April have increased substantially to the EU and have kept prices for almonds in Spain surprisingly stable.

Worst Almond Spanish Production in Five Years

According to the National Table of Nuts, the Spanish almond national production is estimated to reach 62 thousand mt for the 2022-23 campaign, which represents a decrease of 29.27% from the previous campaign. The substantial reduction is mainly due to the effects of strong frosts, rains, and drought in the various almond-producing regions. According to the organization, the reduction that occurred for the second consecutive year has not been offset by the increase in the production area. For the 2022-23 campaign, the almond harvest area in Spain has increased by 8% compared to the previous one, reaching 522 thousand hectares, of which 100 thousand are for organic production.

Despite the inclusion of new productive areas in some regions, the 2022-23 harvest is set to be the worst almond Spanish production in five years due to the unfavorable weather. Growers in the Granada province have reported losses of up to 90% of their crops. According to estimates made by the Andalusian Dried Fruit Working Group, the almond harvest in Andalusia for the 2022-2023 season is estimated to be 30 thousand mt, which would reduce production by 11.42% compared to the previous season. However, it would revalidate its national leadership, with nearly 50% of the total almond harvested in Spain.

Other regions, such as Castilla-La Mancha, with an estimated 4 thousand mt, will reduce their production the most compared to last season with a 65% YoY decrease, and La Rioja with a 74.7% reduction. However, the region of Extremadura and the Balearic Islands are the only ones that have registered higher volumes from the previous campaign with the entry of new plantations. The Extremadura region is set to produce 6.8 thousand mt for a 69.49% increase and the Balearic Islands 680 mt for 23.64%.

US Almond Exports Have Already seen Substantial Increases

Despite a large harvest in US almond production, logistic bottlenecks and clogged harbors in California severely disrupted the peak of the US almond export season since the beginning of the year. According to the USDA’s estimates, the 2022 almond crop (2022/23 MY) production could be around 2.8 billion lbs. With that volume, this will be the third-largest crop on record, after the 3 billion lbs harvested in 2020 and the 2.9 billion lbs harvested in 2021. However, the logistic disruptions suffered in California sabotaged exports throughout the first half of the year. According to the Almond Board of California data, exports of US almonds were down by 13.17% YoY by May. However, exports since April have a rebound, driven by strong international demand, mainly from Spain.

According to the May Almond Board of California report, exports in May were the highest of the marketing year and a record for the month in previous years. The volume exported that month reached 193 million lbs, which was a 29.4% increase from the same month last year. Since April, exports of US almonds started to rebound from a downward trend that has been seen all through the year. Given the large supply of almonds available and the upcoming harvest, exports are expected to keep increasing through the rest of the year.

Additionally, prices for almond kernels in Spain have surprisingly remained stable. According to Tridge’s price chart, the wholesale price of almonds in the Madrid wholesale market on the 4th of July stood at USD 10.59/kg, while last year was at USD 11.20/kg, and at the same time the previous month this year, the price was at USD 10.77/kg.