April Almond Update: US Export Shipments Rebound, Australia Ends 2021/22 MY on a High, Spanish Almond Crop Damaged by Late Frost
The Australian 2021/22 marketing year ended with record production as well as exports. Production was 127,000 mt and total exports for the marketing year were 86,871 mt, 13% higher than in 2020/21. Another record crop of 148,000 mt is forecast for 2022/23.
Much of Spain was hit by unseasonably late frost in the first week of April, which caused major damage to almond and fruit production. As much as 22,000 ha could have been affected by the frost, but the extent of the damage will only become apparent as the season progresses.
US Exports Shipments Bounce Back
US almond exports in March rebounded to an impressive 173 million lbs, the highest monthly number for the 2021/22 marketing year. Exports throughout the first half of the 2021/22 marketing year were only 847 million lbs, the lowest in 4 years and 22% lower than the previous marketing year. This is especially concerning as the crop is the second-largest on record, at 2.8 billion lbs, only slightly less than 2020/21’s record 3.0 billion lbs crop. Higher exports in February and March could signal an improvement in logistics from California, and almond exports might increase even further for the last four months of the marketing year, judging by export commitments.
Another very positive sign is the increase in export commitments, which now stands at an enormous 526 million lbs. This is the highest on record at the end of March and shows that buyers are willing to risk buying almonds from the US. Normally export commitments are on the decrease from October, whereas this marketing year has been the exact opposite. With these high export commitments and estimated new sales, the US could export more than 700 million lbs over the last four months of the marketing year. However, ending stocks could remain very high, at close to 1 billion lbs.
March is an important month for US almond exports, as both Easter and Ramadan slightly increase demand. However, the trend was exaggerated by external factors over the last two years and is not indicative of the “normal” flow of almond exports. Poor exports in January and February 2021 came after new social restrictions were announced in much of Europe. Exports in March 2021 were higher due to a correction from the previous two months and as demand for “at home” snacks, like almonds, increased. Exports in March 2022 increased significantly because of an improvement in logistics from California. Exports to Northeast Asia jumped to 28 million lbs in March, 8 million lbs higher than in February, and neither Easter nor Ramadan is commonly celebrated in Northeast Asia. This indicates that a jump in exports in March will not necessarily be the norm in future marketing years.
Australia finishes 2021/22 MY on a High, but 2022/23 Brings Uncertainty
The 2021/22 marketing year, which ended on 28 February, was a record both in terms of production and exports. Exports in February were 2,720 mt, according to the recently published export figures by The Almond Board of Australia (ABA). This brings total exports for the marketing year to 86,871 mt, 13% higher than in 2020/21. Both exports and domestic consumption continue to increase in line with production, a positive sign for the Australian almond industry. Domestic consumption in Australia could top 30,000 mt for 2021/22 when these figures are finalized.
The ABA estimates production in 2022 to set another record, at 148,000 mt. However, there is some uncertainty about how the uptick in US exports could affect Australia's export. With a lot more US almonds coming to the market, Australian almonds are in for some stiff competition.
Spanish Crop Damaged by Frost
Much of Spain was hit by unseasonably late frost in the first week of April, which caused major damage to almond and fruit production. Many almond trees have already formed buds, which were damaged by the unusually late frost. While the full extent of the damage is unknown, the agricultural insurance group Agroseguro has called it “the worst agricultural insurance event in Spain, with an estimate of EUR 150 million in compensation”. Agroseguro estimates that 22,000 ha of almonds were affected, and compensation of EUR 30 million could be paid to almond farmers. According to calculations by the agricultural groups Joves Agricultors i Ramaders de Catalunya and the Coordinadora de Organizaciones de Agricultores y Ganaderos, 15,500 mt of almonds could be lost due to the frost. However, estimates by various agricultural groups vary widely and the damage caused by the frost will become clear as the season progress. Spain produced 109,200 mt of almonds in the 2021/22 marketing year.
