EU Citrus Production to Decrease for MY 2021-22; Surge in Imports Expected

Published 2022년 1월 29일

For MY 2021-22, citrus production in the EU is projected at 10.7M mt, a drop of 6.8% YoY due to unfavorable weather conditions in the top EU citrus-producing countries. Expected reductions in domestic supplies, increasing demand for citrus derived from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the reopening of the hospitality sector will encourage a surge in EU citrus imports. Additionally, the rise of citrus production costs due to substantial price increases for agricultural inputs may cause economic turbulence in MY 2021-22 for EU citrus growers.

EU’s main export markets are expecting a 6.8% decrease in citrus production in Spain, Italy, and Greece after a positive output in MY 2020-21. Thus, these markets will be looking to increase and diversify their non-EU citrus imports. MY 2020-21 was marked by a general increase in EU citrus supply from producers, which caused citrus imports to decline by 3.8% YoY to 2.1M mt. As a net importer of citrus, the EU heavily depends on the citrus production of Mediterranean countries.

Overview of Projected Citrus Production for MY 2021-22

Orange: Slight Production Increase in Spain could not offset drops in Italy and Greece

Total citrus production in MY 2021-22 for Spain, the major EU citrus grower, is forecast to decline almost 5% compared to the previous season to 6.7 M mt. The Spanish citrus production forecast is also 2.1% lower than the last five-year average. The decrease is mainly due to the expected drop in mandarin and lemon production that could not offset the stable estimated production in Spanish oranges. Spanish orange production is expected to increase by 0.5% YoY, continuing an upward trend. However, all other EU orange-producing countries are expected to decrease their output for the next season. The second major orange EU producer, Italy, expects a 15.2% decrease in its production. Greece and Portugal, the other orange producers, are also expected to decrease their output by 15.4% and 9.8%, respectively.

Mandarin: Continuous Decrease in Planted Area in all countries pushes production down

For MY 2021-22, overall EU mandarin production is forecast to decline by 7.5% YoY, to 2.9M mt, and will also be almost 5.5% lower than the ten-year production average of 3.1M mt. The mandarin shortage in the EU for the next production cycle is mainly due to the decrease in Spanish production, EU’s major mandarin producer, which is expected to decrease production by 10% to 2M mt. In addition, Italy has recently announced that mandarin production will decrease by 20% due to expected droughts in Sicily and Calabria. Greece, the third mandarin producer in the EU, is expected to have a 4% decline in production to 165K mt. In all three cases, the decrease in mandarin production is mainly due to the continuous decline in mandarin planted areas. During the 2011-2020 period, the EU reduced its mandarin planted area by 8%. The Spanish mandarin planted area decreased by 13%, and Italian planted areas decreased by 8% in 2020.

Lemon: Unfavorable weather is expected in Key Production regions

EU lemon production is forecast to decrease by almost 9% YoY to 1.57M mt. The reduction is due to the expected production drop in the EU’s main lemon-producing countries, Spain and Italy. As in the case of mandarins, both Spain and Italy are expecting unfavorable weather in key lemon-producing regions. Spain, which predicts the regions of Murcia and Valencia, and the Provinces of Malaga and Almeria in Andalusia to be affected by droughts further in the year, forecast a decline of 11.3% to 1M mt. Italy, which forecasts a production decline of 5% to 450K mt, is also expecting unfavorable weather, especially Sicily. Greece will be the only country with an optimistic lemon production forecast with a slight increase of 2% to 88K mt. Contrary to the case of mandarins, lemon-planted areas in the EU continued trending upwards. In MY 2020-21, the lemon planted area reached 82,320 hectares, mainly due to the strong expansion in Spain.

Grapefruit: Positive Production Forecast remains marginal for consumption

Grapefruit would be the only citrus crop with a positive production forecast. It is forecast to grow by 2.8% to 108,000 MT due to the 4% expected increase in Spanish grapefruit production. Spain is the primary EU grapefruit producer at 84,000 MT. Despite recent production gains, EU grapefruit production remains marginal. As a result, EU grapefruit imports comprise around 80% of the EU’s total grapefruit supply.

Expected Surge in Imports from Non-European Citrus Suppliers

In MY 2020-21, citrus imports in the EU declined by 3.8% YoY to 2.1M mt due to favorable production, mainly for oranges and grapefruit. There was a 4.6% increase in orange production that year, driven primarily by the increase in Spanish production. However, for MY 2021-22, the effects of production shortages on imports is expected to be the exact opposite. The import volume of citrus is likely to increase by at least by 4%, as significant citrus importing markets will be increasing their non-European citrus imports. The UK, Switzerland, Norway, Canada, and Serbia will turn to citrus supply from South Africa, Egypt, Turkey, Morocco, and China (grapefruit).

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