Florida on Pace for a Historic Low Orange Production in MY 2021/22

Published 2022년 3월 30일

According to a new March-22 USDA forecast update, Florida is on pace to produce historic low record levels of the orange crop for MY 2021/22. USDA's latest March crop forecast shows a 5% decrease in the orange crop from the already disappointing Feb-22 forecast. The new projection further reduces the orange crop estimates to 41.2M boxes, more than 21% less than last season’s final production. Although the forecast for non-Valencia oranges increased, Valencia orange production was lowered to 23M boxes. The state’s citrus industry continues a long downward production trend, primarily because of citrus greening.

According to Feb-22 USDA’s forecast, Florida was expected to produce 44.5M boxes of 90 pounds of oranges, which was already smaller than previous forecasts. However, confirming Florida’s dramatic decline in orange crops, the new March-22 USDA update shows a further 5% decrease in the orange crop from last month’s report.

The latest USDA forecast leaves a projection of all-orange crop to a total of 41.2M boxes, more than 21% less than last season’s final production, while the initial estimates were at 47M boxes. Although 700K boxes raised the forecast for non-Valencia oranges to 18.2 million, Valencia orange production was lowered to 23M boxes. Grapefruit estimates decreased by 5% from the previous season, while tangerines and tangelos remained unchanged.

March estimates are 5% lower than the previous months, mainly due to the late January freezes registered in North and Central Florida, affecting overall Florida citrus production for MY 2021-22. However, orange crop estimations were already low from last year’s initial estimates, following a 20-year downward trend due to the citrus greening bacteria.

The citrus greening bacteria, also called Huanglongbing, is the main reason orange production has continued decreasing for almost 20 years which is thought to have arrived on US soil via trading ports. It was found for the first time in Florida in 2005 and has been infecting citrus trees since then. However, the bacteria has recently surged for the orange crop, severely damaging crops since MY 2019/20. The disease spreads like lice and stops the flow of nutrients into trees, which keeps them from maturing. Therefore, the crops are often small, sour, and sometimes unusable for the market.

With this newly released March forecast for the entire 2021/22 season, the USDA confirms that for MY 2021/22, Florida will have the lowest crop recorded in more than 77 years. In MY 2020/21, orange production was already down 20% from the previous MY, and if the new USDA forecast for the 2021/22 season holds, Florida will reduce its orange production again to 22% YoY. Furthermore, Florida will register its smallest crop of oranges since MY 1944/45, when only 41M boxes were produced.

Just three years ago, Florida was the leading producing state of oranges in the US, surpassing California, the other primary orange producer. However, today, the citrus greening bacteria has Florida on its path to becoming a smaller orange producer, for which US citrus production will be affected in the coming seasons.