Global Soybean Market 2023/24: Balancing Production Peaks with Stable Consumption and Trade Dynamics

Published 2023년 11월 23일

The global soybean market is expected to experience significant growth in 2023/24, driven by solid performance from Brazil, the US, and Black Sea producers. Production is projected to reach a historic high of 395 mmt, a 7% YoY increase. Despite this, the market maintains stability in consumption and stocks. However, trade volumes are expected to decrease by 2% YoY, influenced by reduced shipments to key markets in the Americas and Asia. Industry participants must monitor consumption patterns and trade trends to make informed decisions.

Unprecedented Growth Driven by Brazil, US, and Black Sea Producers

The global soybean market is set to undergo a significant shift in the coming marketing year (2023/24), owing to the outstanding performance of Brazil, the United States (US), and Black Sea producers. Production is expected to climb marginally month-over-month (MoM) in Oct-23, reaching a historic high of 395 million metric tons (mmt) - a significant 7% year-over-year (YoY) increase, according to International Grain Council data (IGC). The first estimations for Brazil's soybean production indicate record yields in 2023/24 to 162 mmt, based on a 3.56 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha) yield, driven by record fast planting in October due to favorable weather in the previous period. This indicates a 4.51% YoY increase from 155 mmt in the 2022/23 season. Additionally, Brazil increased the planted area for 2023/24 to 45.4 million ha, fortifying its position as the most significant global soybean producer.

This output increase is primarily due to extraordinary productivity from essential participants in Brazil, the US, and the Black Sea region. All three regions have shown improved agricultural production, contributing significantly to the overall increase. As a result, the global soybean market is on course to post significant output growth.

Despite the increase in output, consumption and total stocks are expected to remain roughly constant in the upcoming months. This stability results from a precise balance between rising supply and continuous demand. It demonstrates the soybean market's tenacity in dealing with the obstacles provided by a considerable increase in production.

Export Trends Overview of Top 3 Countries

Export Value of Soybean From Brazil, US and Argentina

Source: Tridge TDS

Soybean Market Trends and Challenges in 2023/24

However, trade volumes tell a more complicated story. Forecasts indicate that trade volumes will remain steady at 168 mmt, a 2% YoY decrease from the previous year. The US soybean output expectation for 2023/24 has been drastically reduced since pre-season estimates due to significant acreage reductions and extended adverse weather. Although corn dominates in this area, soybean oil is gaining popularity as the second choice for biofuels in the US, which will also reflect in export volume. Given the market's other volatility like dollar exchange rate and supply chain issues in the Black Seas region, this trade consistency is especially striking. Several variables, including fewer shipments to critical destinations in the Americas and Asia, support the consistency of trade volumes.

Notably, shipments to the Americas and Asia, which have traditionally been essential markets for soybean exports, are likely to fall. Altering trade dynamics, shifting consumer preferences, or regional economic considerations could explain this movement. Understanding the effects of these shifts on global trade patterns will be critical for players navigating the complex soybean market landscape in the next year.

Finally, the global soybean market in 2023/24 forecasts increased output, constant demand, and complicated trade patterns. Market participants must closely watch US and Black Sea manufacturers' consumption patterns and evolving trade trends to make educated decisions in this dynamic, integrated global market. Tridge continues to follow up on shifts in soybean trade and pricing via weekly updates.