Second Wave of African Swine Fever Battering Vietnam’s Pork Industry

Published 2021년 11월 26일

In February 2019, Vietnam reported the first cases of African Swine fever. Nearly 20% of the pig herd was culled to contain the outbreak. This seemed to be effective, as reported cases dropped in the latter parts of 2020 and early 2021. The industry seemed to be well on the way to recovery, as breeding pigs were imported, the herd recovered and even pork production was at pre-African Swine Fever levels in the first quarter of 2021. The latest updates, however, show a second wave seems to have hit Vietnam in late September or early October. Recent reports show that around 100,000 pigs were culled in the last two months and many new outbreaks were reported. The Vietnamese government describes the outbreak as “evolving in a complicated manner” and “threatening to spread on a large scale.”

February 2019 until mid-2021

Culls: The first cases of African swine fever (ASF) were reported in February 2019 in Vietnam. This led to the massive culling of 6 million pigs. In 2020, the outbreak seemed to be contained and only 86,000 pigs were culled due to ASF. Early in 2021, it seemed that the war on ASF was won. According to the USDA’s Vietnam African Swine Fever Update Report, released in May, outbreaks were “sporadic, small-scale, and quickly contained”. The report further stated that since the beginning of 2021, up to April 23rd, only 5,000 pigs have been culled due to ASF

Imports: Vietnam’s 5-year average pork imports, for the year ended 2018, before the ASF outbreak, was 6,489 MT. Imports in 2020 were an enormous 108,494 MT. Russia became the main supplier of these imports, but nearly never featured in Vietnam’s pork imports before. According to Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD), pork imports were at 70,000 MT for the first 6 months of 2021.

Source: ITC Trade Map, MARD

In June 2020, Vietnam allowed the import of live pigs from Thailand, to be slaughtered in Vietnam and make up for the shortages and rising prices. In 2020, 448,000 pigs were imported from Thailand for slaughter according to MARD. A further 43,806 breeding pigs were imported to rebuild the herd, of which 79% came from Thailand.

According to data by ITC Trade Map, 870,486 live hogs have been imported from Thailand between June 2020 and June 2021.

Source: ITC Trade Map

Pork Production and the pig herd: In the first quarter of 2021, pork production rebounded to 1.02 million MT. Compare this to 2019 and 2020 when total pork production was 3.33 million MT and 3.47 million MT respectively, and it seemed the industry was well on the way to recovering. This was even 26% of the total production of 2018, pre-ASF. The pig herd as in December 2020 was 27.3 million, slightly lower than pre-ASF levels of 30.8 million in December 2018, but already 17% higher than in December 2019.

Pork Prices: Pork prices doubled near the end of 2019, as massive cullings drive prices higher. This even prompted government to allow imports of live hogs from Thailand from June 2020 to lower prices and make up for the shortage. Early in 2021 prices remained high as farmers were rebuilding their herds. Prices in May and June were reported to be VND 67,000 to 72,000 / kg.

Latest Updates

After the release of the Vietnam General Statistic Office Report: Livestock of Pig has Recovered, in April, everything seemed to be back to normal. Culls due to ASF were negligible, the herd recovered, pork imports dropped from February to April.

However, fast forward to November, and 230,000 pigs have been culled to contain the outbreak this year. This is according to a Reuters report published on Thursday (25 November). An article published by Tienphong: Dịch tả lợn châu Phi bùng phát mạnh trở lại: Người chăn nuôi kiệt quệ (Translated as African swine fever broke out again: The farmer was exhausted) on 20 October, 112,092 pigs were culled from the beginning of 2021 to October. Compare this to the latest numbers reported by Reuters and more than 100,000 pigs were culled between now and the start of October.

The FAO’s ASF situation in Asia & Pacific update, earlier this month shows that the second wave might have started in September. This report shows the number of affected communes by ASF in Vietnam as well as new outbreaks reported from September. This report was published on 11 November. The FAO will release another update this month and it will be under the microscope.

Cumulative number of affected communes since January 2020 in Viet Nam