Sudan Conflict's Impact on Egypt's Sesame Imports

Published 2023년 12월 22일

Egypt's heavy reliance on sesame imports, predominantly 86% sourced from Sudan in 2022, has faced severe disruptions due to the Sudanese conflict since Apr-23. This disruption significantly affected the supply of sesame seeds in Egypt. With ongoing challenges regarding Sudan's sesame seed production capacity, coupled with the increase of Sudanese migrants to Egypt due to the conflict, there's an anticipated spike in Egyptian sesame seed imports. This scenario underlines Egypt's need to explore alternative importers besides Sudan. Notably, India and Brazil showed increased export figures to Egypt in 2023. India saw a 21.76% YoY hike, exporting 3,311 mt of sesame seed to Egypt from Jan-23 to Jul-23, while Brazil's exports surged by 189% YoY, reaching 2,432 mt from Jan-23 to Oct-23. Despite Egypt's efforts to enhance local sesame production, Tridge predicts the persistent absence of Sudan's sesame market, influencing the Egyptian sesame seed industry. Consequently, Egypt must diversify its sourcing channels effectively to increase sesame supply in 2024.

Sesame seed plays a vital role in Egyptian cuisine and culture, commonly used across various dishes enjoyed by all segments of the population. Egypt's local consumption of sesame seeds reaches 100,000 metric tons (mt) annually, with 75% of sesame seeds used in Tahini and Halva. This highlights the significant reliance on sesame seeds within popular Egyptian food products.

Figure 1. Top countries of Egyptian sesame seed imports

However, Egypt's annual domestic sesame production, estimated at 30,000 mt, significantly falls short of meeting the market's demand of 100,000 mt. Consequently, Egypt heavily relies on sesame imports, with a substantial 86% sourced from Sudan in 2022. Previously in 2021, Egyptian sesame seed imports experienced a decline due to a decrease in supply from Sudan resulting from a military coup in Oct-21. Despite this, the close proximity between Egypt and Sudan facilitates easy transportation. Sudanese sesame is renowned for its quality, making it the primary choice for most Halva and Tahini factories in Egypt

Yet, the conflict in Sudan since Apr-23 has severely disrupted Egypt's sesame supply chain. Traditionally a key major supplier in the global market, Sudanhas faced challenges, causing shortages in the Egyptian market and driving up prices. This scarcity has notably impacted processed Halva and Tahini production in Egypt, resulting in a price increase for Halva in Egypt, reaching EGP 74.67 per kilogram (kg) in May-23, an increase of 9% month-on-month (MoM).

To address these supply chain vulnerabilities, the Egyptian Government aims to expand sesame cultivation. The Ministry of Agriculture plans to increase sesame cultivation areas to 150,000 acres by 2024, a notable 60% year-on-year (YoY) increase, aiming to bolster local production.

Figure 2. Monthly Trends of Indian and Brazilian Sesame Seed Export to Egypt

Furthermore, the migration of the Sudanese community to Egypt due to ongoing conflicts is expected to increase the consumption of sesame seeds within the country. Tridge anticipates ongoing challenges with Sudan's incapacity to produce sesame seeds, coupled with the growing Sudanese community in Egypt, prompting a rise in Egyptian sesame seed imports. This situation emphasizes the ongoing necessity for Egypt to seek alternative sourcing strategies besides Sudan. India and Brazil collectively contributed 11% in Egyptian sesame seed imports in 2022, reflecting an uptick in supply to Egypt. India witnessed a 21.76% YoY increase, exporting 3,311 mt of sesame seed to Egypt from Jan-23 to Jul-23, while Brazil's exports surged by 189% YoY, reaching 2,432 mt from Jan-23 to Oct-23. Despite Egypt's efforts to boost local sesame production, Tridge foresees the continued absence of Sudan's sesame market, influencing the Egyptian sesame seed industry. Therefore, Egypt needs to diversify its sourcing channels to increase sesame seed supply effectively in 2024.