US Frozen Shrimp Imports Resume Double-Digit YoY Decline this May, but Downside Room is Narrowing

Published 2023년 7월 7일

In Jan-23 to May-23, total United States (US) import volumes and prices of frozen shrimp continued declining by double-digit year-over-year (YoY) rates. The market remains oversupplied. Nonetheless, the decline rates have been slowing down, while import volume compared against the five-year average was considerably higher this May. The downside room for this market is narrowing.

In Jan-23 to May-23, total United States (US) import volumes of frozen shrimp (HS code 030617) totaled 231.6 thousand mt, representing a decline of 13.2% year-over-year (YoY). In May alone, the import volume was 48.8 thousand mt, down by 11% compared to the same month last year. This was the 13th consecutive YoY decline.

Meanwhile, in Jan-23 to May-23, import prices averaged USD 7.97/kg, their lowest level for a January to May period since at least 2012. This level represents a 15% decline YoY. However, in May alone, prices managed to gain some ground from previous months, up by 3% from April's levels, at USD 8.13/kg, although they remained 12% below last year's May levels. It's worth remembering that import prices in Feb-23 stood at their lowest levels since at least 2012, at USD 7.75/kg.

The combination of a drop in volume and prices led to a larger drop in total imported value, which stood at 1.84 billion from Jan-23 to May-23, down by 27% YoY. In May-23 alone, value declined by 21% YoY.

As reported in previous Tridge analyses, an oversupplied market is the main reason behind the decline in prices and quantity imported. There was a surge in imports of shrimp products during 2021 to 2022, driven by expectations of higher demand following the easing of pandemic restrictions. Nonetheless, as inflationary pressures – driven by supply chain disruptions and the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict – sharply rose, consumer demand for this product waned. It left a glut in this market which remains in place to date.

Yet, despite the ongoing bearishness, there are several facts suggesting that the downside room is narrowing.

First, the YoY decline in import volume during May-23 was the second lowest in 11 months. April’s was the lowest in 10 months. Second, imported volume in May-23 continued to be higher than the average import volume during the past five Mays, but most importantly, the positive gap increased, now at 9.4% above the five-year average.

Third, the YoY price decline during May-23 was the lowest in six months. Fourth, May's prices rose to their highest levels in five months, despite seasonality trends pointing to a decline in prices virtually from January through July.

Again, both import volume and prices are declining at double-digit annual rates, but the slowing down is there.

Source: Tridge and USDA

Moving forward, import volumes should continue to recover according to their seasonal trends. Import volumes typically begin rising in May after touching their lowest levels in the year from February through April. They typically peak until autumn. On the other hand, seasonal trends of prices suggest there could be more downside until July. Nonetheless, as mentioned above, current price movements are breaking away from seasonality. In addition, current low prices should be supportive of demand growth.