In W21 in the dairy landscape, global milk commodity markets largely softened throughout March 2023 before showing some signs of optimism towards the end of April 2023. Oceania milk commodity returns saw some resistance in April. In US Dollars, milk commodities increased at the end of April compared to March except for whole milk powder. Milk commodity prices have fallen 28-36% YoY since April 2022, with the underlying fundamentals remaining weak and will require an increase in Chinese imports to turn the tide. New Zealand's milk supply is recovering against weaker comparisons in 2022 and a very wet summer. New Zealand’s milk production in March 2023 increased by 0.3%, with intakes now just 1.4% lower YoY. Meanwhile, Australia's milk production shrank by 3.3% YoY in March 2023. So far, in the 2022/23 season, Australian milk production has dropped by 6.2% compared to the 2021/22 season, with the biggest volume declines registered in eastern Vitória.
BLE reports that the German milk supply in March 2023 totaled 2.75MMT, up 2% YoY, with the daily average supply amounting to just over 88.7K MT, almost 0.8% more compared to February 2023. The increase is attributed to German dairy cows producing more milk seasonally towards the spring peak. Incidentally, the 2023 lead from German conventional dairy farming was smaller than in 2022 at 1.7%, while the organic sector grew by 8.8% to 12.2K MT of milk. In March 2023, German milk imports amounted to 87.56K MT, up 4.9% YoY. However, the contraction of German milk imports from the other EU member states was striking. In January 2023, German milk imports were still 23% higher than in the same month in 2022. Pear Dairy Farm indicates that Ugandan stakeholders in the milk value chain must invest adequately to realize the capacity of the dairy sector, which has the potential to become Uganda's main value-added revenue generator. The missed opportunity for proper investment in Uganda is worrying as smallholder farmers lose up to USD 4 per cow per day due to low milk production. This hampers the country's ability to explore export markets. To explore the country's potential it is necessary to invest in prospects that guarantee the quality of production, quantity, and supply of milk throughout the year. This involves providing inputs such as a variety of cow species, and cow feed, and creating feed infrastructure for cattle on both a large and small producer scale. Ugandan average milk production per cow is 5 liters per day, which is much lower compared to countries like the Netherlands and New Zealand, where a cow produces up to 20 liters or more per day. In December 2021, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Uganda produced 2.81B liters of milk, with only 800M liters destined for domestic consumption. Experts indicate that the low production is mainly due to poor diet and poor knowledge. The Dairy Development Authority (DDA) indicates that per capita milk consumption in Uganda is just 62 liters, far below the 200 liters recommended by the World Food Programme (WFP). This indicates that Uganda, even when domestic consumption is improved, has over 2B liters of milk available for export annually. While Uganda is one of Africa's biggest milk exporters, it has the potential to earn USD 1B over the next decade, since DDA reported that Ugandan dairy exports yielded more than USD 102.5M in 2021.
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of May 15th, the daily milk sale volume by agricultural organizations amounted to 56K MT, up 6.6% (+3.4K MT) compared to the same period in 2022. The highest sale volumes from 2K MT were achieved in the Republic of Tatarstan, the Udmurt Republic, the Krasnodar Territory, Voronezh, Kirov, and the Novosibirsk regions. The 2023 Russian average milk yield per cow per day was 21.6kg, up 1.4kg YoY, led by the Krasnodar Territory, Vladimir, Kaluga, Leningrad, Ryazan, Kursk, and Kaliningrad regions, where more than 25 kg of milk per cow was obtained. Lastly, the Russian authorities indicate that the Kuban region’s dairy herd has been growing steadily. For five years, the milking cow stock in the Kuban region has grown to 216.2K heads, up 5%, with productivity increasing by 36%. In 2022, gross milk production in the region increased by more than 12%. This made it possible to increase the output of finished dairy products such as pasteurized milk and cheese, up 6%, while butter grew by 10%. At the end of 2023, milk production in the Kuban is expected to reach 1.669MMT, an increase of at least 3%. To achieve the predicted growth, Russian livestock breeders are working to increase the number of highly productive cows. Since the beginning of 2023, more than 430K MT of milk have already been produced, 9% more than in the same period in 2022.