In W21 in the pork landscape, the USDA indicates that US pork net sales totaled 29.2K MT, down 8% WoW and 29% compared to the 4-week average. US pork sales were primarily for Mexico (14.4K MT), Japan (4.4K MT), South Korea (4.4K MT), Colombia (1.2K MT), and the Dominican Republic (1.1K MT). Meanwhile, US pork exports reached 38.5K MT, up 5% WoW and 3% compared to the 4-week average. US pork shipments were mainly destined for Mexico (16.9K MT), China (4.6K MT), Japan (4.3K MT), South Korea (3.2K MT), and Australia (2.1K MT). Iowa State University estimates the loss of the US hog market in April 2023 at USD 49.47 per head, a monthly record loss and the sixth consecutive month with a deficit. The cost of US hog production in April was calculated at USD 76.59/cwt (live) or USD 102.12/cwt (carcass), the highest since September 2012. The deficit in hog production is attributed to low pig prices, with YTD hog prices being 17.1% lower than the year-ago level. During April 2023, the average live price for 51-52% lean hogs was USD 51.67/cwt, the lowest month since January 2021. The low US hog prices are being driven by low cutout values. After 5 weeks of stagnation, the Danish weaning market went up. Negative PRRS (porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome) piglets were valued at USD 102.11/head, and PRRS positive piglets at USD 100.67/head, for weaners weighing 30kg. Compared to the prices from W22 of 2022, the W21 rates for Danish piglets are higher by USD 54.65-56.10/head, depending on health status. In turn, compared to W20, the current rates are higher by USD 1.44/pcs in all health statuses.
In the first 14 working days of May 2023, Brazilian pork exports totaled 57.45MMT, valued at USD 148.532M, 72% of volume, and 77.84% of value registered in May 2022. Brazilian pork export revenue per daily average until W21 stood at USD 10.609M, up 22.3% YoY but down 5.7% WoW. The tons per daily average was 4.104K MT, an increase of 13.2% YoY but down 5.3% WoW, while the price paid per ton was USD 2.585M, up 8.1% YoY but a slight decrease of 0.4% WoW. Experts indicate that there is a good performance, with an interesting point being the increase in the average value going against what is seen for chicken and beef. Also, Brazilian pork has an interesting growth in relation to volume, which is constantly progressing, diversifying sales, and with China concentrating purchases in Brazil due to price competitiveness. Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other players, other than China, are also paying more for protein. IBGE reports that in Q1 2023, Brazilian pig slaughter reached 14.14M heads, up 3.5% compared to Q1 2022 and grew by 1.8% in relation to Q4 2022. The accumulated weight of carcasses reached 1.29MMT in Q1 2023, an increase of 3.5% compared to Q1 2022 and an advance of 1.3% in relation to Q4 2022. CEPEA-Esalq/USP points out that the Brazilian pork market is reaping the rewards of the growing volume of exports to China, boosting the sector's economy. This is attributed to the celebration of Mother's Day and the reduction in prices of the main inputs used in pork production, such as corn and soy bran. Also, as a result of ASF in China, Brazilian pork exports to China alone increased by 21%.
AHDB estimates the full economic cost of pork production in the UK in Q1 2023 at USD 2.13/kg deadweight, with margins per pig slaughter estimated at - USD 1.07 per head, down USD 0.11/kg compared to Q4 2022, when the estimated cost of production stood at USD 2.24/kg. Feed costs were estimated at 65% of total costs in Q1, down USD 0.15/kg compared to Q4 2022. Also, there was a drop in the cost of fuels from highs seen in 2022, which helped reduce transport costs. Furthermore, interest rates, such as mortgages, rose throughout Q1 2023, placing increased pressure on building and related finance costs. Costs associated with electricity and gas also continue to remain stubbornly high. UK pig prices stabilized at USD 2.11/kg (APP), and USD 2.08/kg (SPP) for Q1 2023. Pig prices gained momentum throughout Q1 2023, reaching all-time highs. These price increases help bring the cost of production closer to breaking even. According to GPP, Portuguese pig slaughter in Q1 2023 reached 944.83K heads, a decrease of 9.4% compared to Q1 2022. This is the continuation of the trend already seen in 2022 where there had been a decrease of around 2% in the slaughter of fattening pigs compared to 2021. The total slaughter weight also dropped, but less sharply at 8.6%, indicating that the 85.8kg average carcass weight was higher than the 2022 weight of 85.1kg average. Furthermore, Portuguese piglet slaughter for roasting in Q1 2023 totaled 264.32K heads, down 3% compared to the same period in 2022. Piglet slaughter weight dropped by 2.5%, having shifted from 1,897MT in 2022 to 1,849.1MT in 2023, with no change in the average weight, which remained at 7kg, the normal slaughter weight of piglets for roasting in Portugal. With regard to refuse breeders, 11.77K heads (+4%) were slaughtered in 2023 against 11.32K heads in 2022. Lastly, South Korea is resuming imports of German pork after suspending imports for more than two years, following the discovery of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Germany. South Korea, China, and other big Asian buyers banned German pork imports after ASF was found in eastern Germany in September 2020 after spreading from Poland via wild boars. South Korea has accepted the rationalization concept, under which only pork imports from the region affected by the disease are restricted. The first three German slaughterhouses and meatpackers have been authorized to resume exports to South Korea immediately.