1. Weekly Price Overview

Short Term Prices Remain Stable As Market Absorbs Global Production Dip

In W49 of 2025, sunflower oil export prices in the Black Sea region remained largely stable. Ukraine's Free on Board (FOB) price held flat at USD 1,255 per metric ton (mt), showing no change week-on-week (WoW). Russia's FOB price saw a marginal 0.41% WoW increase to USD 1,220/mt. In the European Union (EU) wholesale market, price trends diverged. Spain recorded a 1.10% WoW decline to USD 1,576.1/mt, whereas Bulgaria saw a slight 0.40% WoW rise to USD 1,690.7/mt.

The stability in the Black Sea is largely driven by a lack of strong export demand, which is keeping a lid on prices despite the underlying supply tightness from lower harvest volumes. The market appears to have found a temporary equilibrium where weak demand offsets the bullish pressure of the decade-low Ukrainian harvest. In the EU, Spain's price dip suggests a market adjustment, supported by a domestic harvest that is on par with the five-year average. Conversely, Bulgaria's continued price strength reflects its specific domestic deficit, with production expected to be nearly 12% below average, keeping local supplies tight and prices elevated.

2. Price Analysis

Lower Global Production Forecasts Sustain High Annual Prices Despite Short-Term Calm

Analyzing the longer-term data for W49, sunflower oil prices show a relatively stable month-on-month (MoM) trend in the Black Sea, but remain significantly higher year-on-year (YoY). Ukraine’s FOB price dipped 0.40% MoM to USD 1,255/mt, while Russia’s FOB price rose marginally by 0.41% MoM to USD 1,220/mt. In the European Union (EU), Bulgaria continued its upward trajectory with a 0.65% MoM gain, while Spain posted a 0.25% MoM increase.

Despite the short-term stability, the YoY picture reveals a global market under structural strain. Bulgaria’s wholesale price is up 26.15% YoY, the highest among the group, driven by a domestic harvest forecast to be 11.73% below the five-year average. Spain’s price is up 15.25% YoY, a significant rise but moderated by a better domestic crop performance compared to its neighbors, roughly on par with its five-year average. However, EU production for 2025 is forecasted at 8.52 million metric tons (mmt), down 9.06% on the five year average. The low production in the EU, along with depressed global production is the main driving force behind the high YoY prices increases in the EU.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine is up 11.06% YoY and Russia 9.91% YoY. These elevated annual levels are underpinned by the USDA's December WASDE report, which lowered global sunflower seed production for 2025/26 by 2.5 mmt citing reductions in both Russia and Ukraine. This fundamental supply deficit continues to support prices well above last year's levels, even as short term demand remains depressed in the Black Sea region.

3. Strategic Recommendations

For global buyers seeking to mitigate the high prices seen in the EU and the persistent supply uncertainty in Ukraine, Russia remains a key sourcing opportunity. In W49, Russia's FOB price stood at USD 1,220/mt, maintaining its position as the most competitive major exporter. This price is significantly below Ukraine's (USD 1,255/mt) and offers a substantial discount compared to EU wholesale levels in Bulgaria (USD 1,690.7/mt) and Spain (USD 1,576.1/mt). This price advantage is supported by Russia's relatively robust supply fundamentals. Despite lower output volumes in 2025, its harvest remains substantial enough to support export volumes.

However, buyers must navigate significant geopolitical and logistical risks. Sourcing from a nation engaged in an active war carries inherent uncertainties, including potential disruptions to Black Sea port operations, high insurance premiums, and complex payment channels. Therefore, importers considering Russia should conduct thorough due diligence on their logistics partners and secure comprehensive cargo insurance. It should be noted that freight costs could become significantly more expensive towards the end of the year following recent strikes on cargo vessels in the Black Sea by Ukraine. Tridge Eye’s transaction level data highlights Divo Altaya, Maslenitsa, and Yug Rusi as viable export partners in Russia.