1. Weekly News

North America

Limited Table Grape Supply in North America with High Demand and Supply Chain Challenges

North America's table grape supply was limited in W52, with most fruit allocated for pre-season programs, leaving low open market activity until the end of Jan-25. Grape varieties like Sweet Globe, Timpson, Ivory, Autumn Crisp, Allison, Sweet Celebration, and Timco are being actively traded, with specialty varieties such as Cotton Candy and Candy Snap remaining popular. Despite tight supply, demand is high, driven by rising grape consumption, particularly in Canada. However, challenges like exchange rates, potential port strikes, and container shortages affect the supply chain.

Chile

Chile Begins 2024/25 Table Grape Exports to Mexico Under Sustainable Systems Approach Protocol

Export organization Frutas de Chile has commenced exporting table grapes to Mexico for the 2024/25 season under the Systems Approach protocol, marking a significant milestone for the industry. This export method, introduced last season through a successful pilot program, replaces previous fumigation practices with a sustainable inspection system, ensuring better fruit quality and increased competitiveness. Grapes from the Atacama, Coquimbo, and Valparaíso regions are being exported, with expectations of over 60,000 boxes reaching Mexico. This initiative, which includes rigorous phytosanitary measures and traceable packaging, aims to expand export variety options and improve fruit quality, especially for markets like the United States (US), Mexico, and Brazil.

Mexico

Mexico’s Grape Industry Concludes the 2024 Season

In Dec-24, Mexico's grape industry concluded the season with 23.8 million boxes, primarily destined for the US, followed by the domestic market and Asia. The Director of Mexico Table Grapes highlighted key challenges for the sector, including stagnant global grape consumption, climate change, and potential tariff increases under the incoming US administration. The director emphasized the need for industry collaboration, with the establishment of the World Table Grape Council aimed at boosting consumption. Mexico is also shifting toward new grape varieties and addressing water management and labor issues. The industry focuses on quality and innovation, including exploring artificial intelligence (AI) and new technologies.

Peru

Peru's 2024 Grape Exports Projected to Fall Short of 2023 Record Due to El Niño Impact and Price Declines

Peru's grape exports in 2024 are expected to fall short of 2023's record results, primarily due to the atypical impact of the El Niño phenomenon, which accelerated the 2024 harvest to late 2023. As a result, exports in 2024 are projected to reach USD 1.5 billion, compared to USD 1.79 billion in 2023, with grapes losing their position as the leading agro-export product in Peru. A significant decline in prices, particularly in Feb-24, and a 10% drop in export value in Nov-24 have contributed to the decrease. The US remains the top destination, though the average price decreased by 19%. Other key markets include the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (UK), with both seeing volume increases but with lower average prices.

Peru Launches Cold Treatment System for Table Grape Exports, Strengthening Global Competitiveness

Peru's Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (MIDAGRI), through the National Agricultural Health Service of Peru (SENASA), has launched a new phytosanitary certification process for the export of fresh fruit under cold treatment in refrigerated shipholds at the port of Paracas. The first shipment, containing 4,000 pallets of table grapes from Ica, Arequipa, and Piura, is headed to the US. This new system, which addresses container shortages and optimizes transport, is supported by SENASA's technical expertise and

the collaboration of the United States Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS). This initiative enhances Peru's position as a leader in agricultural exports and strengthens the competitiveness of its table grapes in global markets.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Grape Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Grape Pricing Important Exporters (W52 2023 to W52 2024)

Chile

Chile's table grape prices have experienced a slight decrease, reaching USD 1.51 per kilogram (kg) in W52, reflecting a 0.66% drop week-on-week (WoW) and a more significant 28.44% decline month-on-month (MoM). Despite this price dip, projections for the 2025 season remain optimistic, particularly for the Atacama region, where production has already commenced. The Coquimbo region's harvest has been slightly delayed. However, expectations are high due to favorable weather conditions, including beneficial winter rains that have contributed to even vine sprouting and promising fruit quality.

In addition to favorable domestic conditions, Chilean grape exports stand to benefit from supply shortages in the US market, particularly following adverse weather in California, which has led to a gap in available fruit. As a result, US importers may increasingly turn to Chilean grapes. The introduction of the Systems Approach for grape exports, which eliminates fumigation and ensures higher-quality fruit, is expected to boost competitiveness, especially in the US, Mexico, and other international markets. Around 30% of Chile's grapes are anticipated to be exported using this method. The focus for the season will be ensuring the smooth export of the highest volume through the Port of Coquimbo, a strategic point for Chilean grape exports.

Peru

In W52, Peru's grape prices decreased to USD 0.85/kg, marking a 2.30% WoW drop but reflecting a significant 28.79% increase year-on-year (YoY). This fluctuation is influenced by the ongoing challenges in grape production, particularly in the Ica region, which accounts for over 50% of the country's total grape output. Although 2023 saw a decline in production, with a 23.6% drop in grape output between Jan-24 and Oct-24 and a 13% fall in exports, the sector shows signs of recovery.

The region's economic reliance on grape exports is evident, with Ica contributing almost USD 1 billion to national income in 2023. The heatwaves experienced in recent months have adversely affected small and medium-sized producers, causing dehydration and plant stress, further exacerbating the production challenges. However, the outlook for the 2024/25 season is optimistic, with expectations for a volume recovery. The southern regions of Peru plan to export nearly 41 million boxes, a notable increase from previous seasons. These factors—fluctuating production and climatic challenges—can influence future grape prices, potentially driving them higher in response to supply constraints or further price volatility.

South Africa

South Africa's grape prices significantly increased in W52, rising to USD 1.98/kg, reflecting a 38.46% WoW surge and a 19.28% MoM rise. Multiple factors influence this price growth, including strong demand from key export markets and the recovery of the South African grape sector following earlier disruptions.

A notable development for South Africa is the re-opening of Thailand's market to South African deciduous fruits, including grapes, which had been banned since 2008. This access allows exporters to expand their reach in Southeast Asia, a region where demand for high-quality fresh produce is growing. The re-entry into the Thai market, alongside the ongoing investments in advanced production and packaging practices, positions South African grapes to compete more effectively, potentially boosting export volumes.

These positive developments and the sustained demand for high-quality grapes from key markets such as the European Union (EU), the Middle East, and Southeast Asia could support higher price stability in the medium term. However, fluctuations in global supply and demand and climatic conditions affecting production will continue to play a critical role in shaping future pricing trends.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Export Opportunities Through the Systems Approach

Exporters in Chile should capitalize on the Systems Approach protocol to enhance market access in the US and Mexico. This method ensures higher fruit quality by eliminating fumigation and increasing sustainability, making it a key selling point. Marketing efforts should emphasize these advantages to appeal to health—and quality-conscious consumers. Exporters should also prioritize compliance with phytosanitary standards to ensure smooth logistics and avoid delays.

Mitigate Supply Chain Challenges with Diversified Sourcing

Importers in North America and Europe should diversify their sourcing strategies to address supply constraints and potential disruptions such as port strikes and container shortages. Strengthening partnerships with suppliers in Peru, Chile, and South Africa can secure consistent availability of high-demand varieties like Sweet Globe and Autumn Crisp. Investments in alternative logistics solutions, such as cold treatment shipping, can also optimize transport and reduce bottlenecks.

Adapt to Evolving Consumer Preferences and Market Trends

Producers and exporters in Mexico and Peru should focus on introducing and promoting new grape varieties to counter stagnant global consumption. Leveraging advanced technologies, such as AI, for forecasting and quality control can improve competitiveness. Collaborating through initiatives like the World Table Grape Council can boost global demand by aligning marketing efforts and addressing shared challenges, including climate resilience and tariff uncertainties.

Sources: Tridge, Agro Peru, Agraria, Portal Fruticola, Fresh Fruit, La Serena Online, Fruit Net