February 2025 Outlook Report: Fruits

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,945.46 per 40-foot container in Jan-25, marking a 7.3% rise from Dec-24 and a significant 35.63% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This rise was driven by general rate increases (GRIs), pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, and global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 124.29 points in Jan-25, marking a 3.91% month-on-month (MoM) increase, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Avocado: In Tridge's Jan-25 monthly outlook, major avocado markets like Mexico and Spain showed improved prices of avocado, while Chile experienced a price decrease. In Mexico, avocado prices rose due to strong United States (US) demand despite potential tariff challenges. In Spain, prices have slightly increased, reflecting a balanced market. However, growers face challenges such as water scarcity and high costs. Meanwhile, Chile's market is experiencing a price decrease compared to last year despite increased exports to the US. Favorable weather has boosted production, and Chile continues to export avocados year-round, with a focus on the popular Hass variety.

- Grape: Regarding fresh grapes, all major markets experienced price declines in Jan-25. The fresh grape market in Chile experienced a significant price drop due to an abundant supply from the ongoing harvest season. Despite this, there is optimism that prices will stabilize as the peak harvest period passes. Peru's grape market saw a slight price decrease, although prices have increased compared to the previous year. The US remains the primary market, whereas labor shortages continue to challenge the agricultural sector, impacting production capacity. Finally, grape prices have decreased in South Africa, although the price trend is stabilizing. The ample supply has been a key factor in the price decline.

- Mango: In Jan-25, the wholesale price of fresh mangoes in Peru hit a record low, dropping significantly due to an oversupply that has outpaced demand in domestic and export markets. This price decline is largely attributed to favorable growing conditions that led to an unexpectedly high yield. Additionally, Peruvian mangoes face stiff international competition, with overlapping harvests from Mexico further limiting export opportunities.