February 2025 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,945.46 per 40-foot container in Jan-25, marking a 7.3% rise from Dec-24 and a significant 35.63% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This rise was driven by general rate increases (GRIs), pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, and global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 124.29 points in Jan-25, marking a 3.91% month-on-month (MoM) increase, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) cereal price index averaged 111.7 points in Jan-25, a slight 0.27% MoM increase but a 6.84% YoY decline. The marginal rise was mainly driven by higher maize and coarse grain prices, while wheat prices remained relatively stable and rice prices declined.

- Wheat: Australian wheat export prices are expected to remain bearish in Feb-25, driven by strong production. In contrast, Russian wheat prices are likely to remain bullish due to tightening supply. Meanwhile, United States (US) wheat export prices are projected to stay relatively stable but low, influenced by frost damage.

- Maize: US maize export prices are expected to stay bullish throughout Feb-25, driven by constrained supply, strong exports, and favorable global pricing. Brazil’s maize prices will likely remain elevated due to tight supply concerns and planting delays. In Argentina, prices are expected to stay high but relatively stable, as poor production prospects from unfavorable weather are balanced by the government's reduction of export taxes.

- Rice: India’s rice export prices are expected to stay subdued in Feb-25 as supply outpaces demand despite strong export growth. Thai rice prices will likely remain low in the coming months due to rising competition from India following eased export restrictions. Similarly, Vietnam’s rice prices are expected to stay low, pressured by intensified competition and increased global supply.