March 2025 Outlook Report: Fruits

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,129.10 per 40-foot container in Feb-25, marking a 20.69% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 7.70% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. This decline is attributed to the post-Lunar New Year (LNY) slowdown. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 133.47 points in Feb-25, marking a 7.39% MoM increase and a 13.11% YoY rise, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Avocado: Avocado markets in Mexico, Spain, and Chile displayed varied price movements in Feb-25. Mexico saw a minor MoM price change, while at the same time a substantial 50.49% YoY price jump, driven by strong United States (US) demand during the Super Bowl and reduced supply caused by drought and insecurity in Michoacán. In Spain, prices rose slightly MoM and declined 26.56% YoY due to increased competition from exporters like Morocco and Colombia, despite stable domestic demand and growing production in regions like Valencia. Meanwhile, Chile experienced a slight MoM price increase but an 18.14% YoY drop, with stable supply and demand keeping prices steady. Chilean exports have declined, facing tough competition in the US and European markets. Meanwhile, traders remain attentive to potential impacts from Mexico's tariff changes.

- Grape: In Feb-25, fresh grape prices experienced notable fluctuations across Chile, Peru, and South Africa. Chile saw a 9.47% MoM price drop yet a significant YoY increase, driven by sufficient supply despite the end of the peak harvest season, with prices expected to recover in Mar-25 as supply decreases. Peru faced a sharp 25% MoM price decline, even as exports reached record levels due to strong international demand. South Africa also recorded a 11.76% MoM price drop. Nevertheless, late-season demand in traditional and emerging markets is expected to stabilize prices in the coming month.

- Mango: The wholesale price of fresh mangoes in Peru rose 17.24% MoM in Feb-25, breaking a downward trend since Jul-24, but still 64.94% lower YoY due to oversupply and intense international competition. Peru also faced export challenges due to overlapping harvests with Mexico, resulting in a 4% MoM decline in export volume and a 27% YoY drop in value in 2024.