May 2024 Outlook Report: Grains

Benjamin Lategan
Published May 19, 2024
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- Key Indicators: Global freight prices are on a downward trend in Mar-24 and Apr-24 as global freight companies learn to navigate the tensions in the Middle East. However, freight prices will likely remain elevated as global ocean cargo demand is up year-on-year (YoY) and is expected to increase further in the coming months. The World Bank fertilizer index fell 4.66% between Dec-23 and Apr-24, indicating a subtle but consistent downward trend. In Apr-24, the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 111.2 points, showing a slight increase of 0.3 points compared to Mar-24, but it remained notably lower, by 25 points (18.3 percent), than its value in Apr-23.
- Wheat: Australian wheat prices have been on a downward trend since Dec-23, dropping from USD 296/mt to USD 243/mt in Apr-24. US hard red winter wheat prices have been on a consistent downward trend from a peak of USD 516/mt in May-22 to a low of USD 271/mt in Apr-24, nearly half of the peak in May-22. Russian wheat prices dropped significantly in the first three months of the year, sinking to USD 203/mt in Mar-24, the lowest price level since Sep-19. Russian wheat remains the most competitively priced among the major exporters.
- Maize: US Maize prices have been on a sharp and consistent downward trend since its peak of USD 343/mt in Oct-22, dipping below the USD 200/mt mark in Jan-24 and stabilizing to USD 191/mt in Mar-24 and Apr-24. Brazilian maize prices dipped below the USD 200/mt mark in Feb-24 and Mar-24 for the first time since Dec-20. Argentinian maize prices have been on a consistent downward trend since Jan-23, dropping from USD 312/mt in Dec-22 to USD 193/mt in Apr-24. Maize prices dipped below the USD 200/mt mark in Feb-24 and have remained below this level since, although prices have rebounded slightly in the past two months following the low of USD 184/mt in Feb-24.
- Rice: Thai 5% rice prices have been on a downward trend since the start of 2024 after reaching a peak of USD 660/mt in Jan-24 and have since fallen to USD 592/mt in Apr-24. The primary drivers for the recent decrease in prices are increased supplies from the 2023/24 off-season harvest and a weaker Thai Baht against the US dollar. Similar to Thailand, Vietnamese rice prices have been on a downward trend since the start of 2024, dropping from USD 640/mt in Dec-23 to USD 568/mt in Apr-24. Increased supplies from the winter-spring harvest is the driving factor for price decreases in recent months along with decreased sales to Indonesia.

Table of contents

Part I: Key Indicators

- Freight

- Fertilizer

- FAO Cereals Index

Part II: Wheat

- Australia

- Russia

- US

Part III: Maize

- US

- Brazil

- Argentina

Part IV: Rice

- Thailand

- Vietnam

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