November 2024 Outlook Report: Grains

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,521.60 per 40-foot container in Oct-24, a significant 27.19% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. The drop was primarily due to an early end to the typical peak shipping season. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index rose to an average of 123.48 points in Oct-24, a 4.01% MoM increase. This rise was driven by an increase in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset the decline in potassium chloride. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Cereal Price Index averaged 114.4 points, a 0.7% MoM increase attributed to concerns over unfavorable weather conditions in some key exporting countries.

- Wheat: Australia’s wheat prices decreased by 1.58% MoM in Oct-24, driven by increased competition from Canada and Russia, and reduced demand from China. However, Australian wheat export prices are projected to rebound in Nov-24 due to production challenges arising from adverse weather conditions. Russian wheat prices rose by 7.40% MoM, primarily due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting winter crop sowing and the implementation of regulatory measures. This upward trend in Russian wheat export prices is expected to persist through Nov-24. In the United States (US), Hard Red Winter wheat prices increased slightly by 0.88% MoM as adverse weather impacted crop quality and yields. Despite this, the appreciation of the US dollar is likely to constrain wheat export volumes, with prices expected to remain steady or potentially decline in Nov-24.

- Maize: Maize prices in the US increased by 3.29% MoM in Oct-24, driven by strong global demand and its competitive pricing compared to Brazil and Argentina. This advantage is expected to sustain export momentum into Nov-24. In Brazil, maize prices rose by 4.52% MoM, supported by robust domestic demand and a strategic supply reduction by producers. As domestic consumption continues to grow, firm prices are likely to persist despite a challenging export environment. Meanwhile, Argentina recorded a 7.59% MoM increase in maize prices due to unfavorable weather conditions disrupting production. With reduced output and shrinking exportable volumes, Argentine maize export prices are anticipated to remain elevated in Nov-24.

- Rice: Rice prices in India saw a marginal 0.09% MoM decline in Oct-24, primarily driven by increased export activity following the relaxation of government restrictions. With a favorable production outlook and eased export measures, Indian rice prices are expected to decrease further in Nov-24. Similarly, Thai and Vietnamese 5% broken rice prices dropped by 10.9% MoM and 3.71% MoM, respectively, due to increased exportable supplies. These prices are anticipated to continue falling in Nov-24, fueled by strong shipments and intensified competition, particularly from India, following the removal of export restrictions.