November 2024 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,521.60 per 40-foot container in Oct-24, a 27.19% month-on-month (MoM) decrease. The drop was primarily due to an early end to the typical peak shipping season. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index rose to an average of 123.48 points in Oct-24, a 4.01% MoM increase. This rise was driven by an increase in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset the decline in potassium chloride.

- Potato: In France, a record harvest and increased exports have led to a significant drop in potato prices due to abundant supply, with further declines expected as the harvest progresses. In the Netherlands, potato prices have also fallen sharply, influenced by near-completion of the harvest and varying yields across potato varieties. However, prices are anticipated to rebound in Nov-24 as demand increases. In Egypt, potato prices have remained stable with a slight year-on-year (YoY) increase, supported by strong production in the Nile Delta and Western desert regions. Egyptian traders face challenges in expanding into European markets due to competition from Dutch and German producers, with prices expected to remain steady in the near term.

- Tomato: In Mexico, adverse weather has significantly reduced tomato production, leading to a sharp price increase due to tight supply, with expectations of continued high prices as demand remains stable. In Morocco, rising prices are driven by increased demand and inflation despite declining European Union (EU) imports. The early arrival of Moroccan crops and the impact of the tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) are notable factors. In Spain, tomato prices have risen due to limited supply and weather-related production damage, with further increases anticipated. Spain's reliance on imports, mainly from Portugal, has grown, and recent flooding has disrupted logistics, although recovery efforts are underway.

- Onion: In India, onion prices have decreased recently but remain significantly higher YoY due to supply shortfalls caused by heavy rains in key growing regions. Government measures, including releasing buffer stocks, aim to stabilize prices. In Mexico, onion prices are rising due to sparse supplies and increased demand as the holiday season approaches, exacerbated by drought conditions affecting production. In Egypt, onion prices have more than doubled since Aug-24, driven by increased exports and production, although they remain lower YoY. The expansion into new export markets, such as the United States (US) and West Africa, is expected to support stable prices despite global demand fluctuations.