October 2024 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices dropped by 8% month-on-month (MoM) in Sep-24, averaging USD 4,836.65 per 40-foot container. This decline is largely attributed to the closing of the peak season for shipments to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index dropped by 1.08% MoM, reaching 118.72 points. The decrease was primarily driven by a 1.46% MoM drop in urea prices and a 2.42% MoM decline in potassium chloride prices, which more than offset the 1.60% MoM increase in diammonium phosphate (DAP) rates.

- Potato: In Sep-24, the French potato market experienced a rare price decline, breaking a prolonged upward trend attributed to adverse weather and increased disease pressure, particularly from mildew, which negatively impacted crop health and yield. Despite these challenges, a projected increase in cultivated areas and yield for the upcoming season offers a more positive outlook. In addition, the Netherlands faced a significant price drop due to oversupply from high yields and early harvests, resulting in market saturation; however, producers are expected to adapt to stabilize prices as they remain a crucial exporter in Europe. Meanwhile, Egypt's potato sector stabilized after fluctuating prices throughout the year, although it faces challenges from reduced seed imports, leading to a significant drop in supply. Egyptian exporters are targeting European markets for expansion, anticipating that new season pricing trends may mirror previous patterns as they prepare for the upcoming harvest.

- Tomato: In Sep-24, the Mexican tomato market saw a significant monthly decline in wholesale prices, consistent with seasonal trends of lower demand and increased supply as the fall season begins, alongside a year-on-year (YoY) drop reflecting previous high prices driven by adverse weather. Production is expected to rise, aiding market stabilization, although reliance on open-field farming poses risks. In Morocco, tomato prices stabilized after months of volatility, but the industry faces challenges from declining production and heightened demand due to environmental factors like heat waves, which may lead to future price increases. Meanwhile, Spain experienced a notable MoM price rise due to the conclusion of the summer production cycle, with tight supply exacerbated by extreme weather and high export demand, suggesting further price fluctuations ahead as the market approaches winter.

- Onion: In Sep-24, Indian onion prices surged significantly YoY due to reduced acreage in key growing regions, erratic rainfall, and crop damage, with government efforts like buffer stock releases and eased export restrictions aimed at curbing further price increases. In Mexico, prices remained steady MoM, though they dropped notably from last year as cold weather impacted yields, and demand continues to pressure supply. Egyptian onion prices continued a downward trend this year from oversupply after a strong harvest, with a slight recent rebound as the season wraps up and the market seeks new export opportunities to support demand.