Analysis of crop prices by September 22: The avalanche-like fall in prices continues in Russia

Updated Sep 26, 2023
Prices for wheat and barley continue to decline, the avalanche-like decline does not stop, despite the stabilization of the dollar exchange rate and export duties. The dominant influence on the market is the active supply of grain from the new harvest, which farmers strive to sell as soon as possible. The only crop that this trend did not apply to was soybeans, but in the near future the optimistic rise in prices for it may stop.
Purchasing prices for wheat in Russian ports continue to fall, despite the stabilization of the dollar exchange rate and export duties. The fundamental factor is the FOB price, which dropped another $2–4 per ton during the week. However, the real pressure on the market is created by an oversupply of wheat among farmers in all macro-regions in the European part of Russia, which accumulates against the backdrop of a reduction in purchases from importers. This is partly explained by the seasonal decline in demand after active purchases in July-August, as well as the competitive supply of the new crop in European countries and Ukraine. In the next 2-3 weeks, including focusing on a moderately active lineup, we can hardly expect prices to return to fair parity levels. On the barley market, prices also continued to decline, although at a less active pace compared to wheat. Nevertheless, the current level is almost 1000 rubles per ton below the calculated parity level. FOB prices moved ...
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