Russia: Analysis of harvest prices by May 26; atypical gap in the bid and ask prices
Sunflower Seed
Soybean
Published May 27, 2023
Tridge summary
An atypical gap in the bid and offer prices is emerging on the wheat market, which is fraught with a drop in export activity and export volumes at the start of the 2023/24 season. Thus, the “recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture” FOB price level for exporters for a new crop is announced at $260 per ton, while importers are guided by the range of $240–250, which is already offered by suppliers from Ukraine and the EU (France). In this regard, the current prices relate more to old contracts, including those for delivery under the latest GASC tender for Egypt. Prices should be supported by the upcoming change in the mechanism for calculating the export duty, which is largely expected by farmers. Exchange purchase prices, which have risen to 13,900 rubles per ton, reflect an insignificant volume of transactions and are not a reliable indicator of the current market situation.
Original content
An atypical gap in bid and offer prices is emerging on the wheat market, which is fraught with a drop in export activity and export volumes at the start of the 2023/24 season. Thus, the “recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture” FOB price level for exporters for a new crop is announced at $260 per ton, while importers are guided by the range of $240–250, which is already offered by suppliers from Ukraine and the EU (France). In this regard, the current prices relate more to old contracts, including those for delivery under the latest GASC tender for Egypt. Prices should be supported by the upcoming change in the mechanism for calculating the export duty, which is largely expected by farmers. Exchange purchase prices, which have risen to 13,900 rubles per ton, reflect an insignificant volume of transactions and are not a reliable indicator of the current market situation. Exporter prices for barley remain extremely low, significantly underestimated relative to the parity level. ...
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