Analysts believe that the European Commission has not sufficiently reduced the forecasts of the rape harvest in the EU

Published Aug 13, 2024

Tridge summary

The European Commission has lowered its rapeseed crop forecasts for the EU due to adverse weather and pest issues, with some in the market believing the estimates are too high, especially for Germany. The EU's rapeseed harvest is underway, with yield data confirming pre-harvest estimates. The Commission has reduced its forecast for the EU rape harvest by 0.5 to 18.4 million tons, which is below the 2023 figure and the annual average. The production forecasts for France, Romania, and Germany have been lowered, while those for Slovakia, Ireland, and Denmark have been increased. November rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange have fallen 1%, and the market is now awaiting the USDA's August report, which may further lower the production forecast.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The European Commission has significantly lowered its forecasts for the EU rape crop, but some market participants believe that estimates should be even lower, especially for Germany. Rapeseed harvesting in the EU is underway, and in some regions already completed, with yield data confirming pre-harvest estimates. Unfavorable weather conditions during the growing season and the activity of pests in the larger territory of the EU had a negative effect on the formation of the harvest, so the European Commission adjusted forecasts several times downwards. Now, the forecast for the rape harvest in the EU has been reduced by 0.5 to 18.4 million tons compared to the June estimate, which is 1.3 million tons less than the 2023 figure, but still exceeds the annual average of 17.8 million tons. this year, IGC experts estimate the harvest at 18.5 million tons, and USDA - at 18.9 million tons. The European Commission lowered the forecast of rapeseed production for France the most (compared to ...
Source: Graintrade
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