Varying milk price forecasts for next season in New Zealand

Dairy

New Zealand

Published Mar 29, 2023

Tridge summary

$3 span across the range of predictions will prompt caution when drawing up budgets.

Original content

Dairy market analysts differ widely in their preliminary forecasts for the farmgate milk price next season, which begins in two months. The span of $3 between highest and lowest should give rise to caution among dairy farmers budgeting for the new season to cover much higher farm expenses. Westpac senior agri economist Nathan Penny, an analyst of long standing with a reputation for optimism, said increasing Chinese demand and the relatively low New Zealand dollar will deliver $10/kg milksolids in 2023-24. ASB economist Nat Keall said improving Chinese demand is being offset by weaker dairy consumption elsewhere and that $7/kg is a reasonable forecast. ANZ agricultural economist Susan Kilsby sits in the middle at $8.50, having just trimmed both the current season prediction and 2023-24 by 25c because dairy commodities have not rebounded as she hoped. Penny said the reopening of the Chinese economy after covid lockdowns has already lifted the tide in sheepmeat and export logs. “It ...

Source: Farmersweekly

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