Short term volatility is expected as the Ukrainian grain export corridor renewal date nears. An extension is anticipated, though the outcome of talks will be crucial for the short and long-term price direction. Currently, cheap and plentiful Russian supplies continue to pressure the market.
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Argentinian crop concerns lend some support to markets short term, though demand too is crucial. Longer term, a large Brazilian crop is due, and a large US crop is forecast for 2023/24. Barley prices continue to follow the wider grains complex. Last week saw considerable pressure across the board for global grains, especially for old-crop prices. Chicago wheat and Paris wheat markets (May-23) fell 7% and 4% respectively last week, pressured by competitive Russian wheat picking up global demand and optimism for an extension of the Black Sea Initiative (Ukrainian export corridor). US markets were closed on Monday for a public holiday, but later in the week saw added pressure from a strengthening US dollar. Last week, Egypt’s state buyer GASC purchased 240Kt of Russian wheat for shipment 1-15 April. The lowest offer was $317.50/t (cost and freight), with most expensive origin offered being French ($341.90/t). Eyes will be on Turkey’s state grain board TMO tender for 790Kt milling ...
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