There is a “high probability” of a Niña scenario by January 2023 – and this is bad news for soybeans. “The scenario of a new La Niña phase during the planting of grains is practically confirmed”, says the specialized portal Valor Soja. “The latest forecast released by the Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (CPC/IRI) indicates that the probability of continuation of a Niña phase for the last quarter of this year is 79%, while a month ago it was 79%. 66%.
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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which includes the oscillation of meteorological parameters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is a key variable, which generally causes below-normal rainfall in most agricultural regions of South America”, he points out. According to the meteorological institutes, the situation would only begin to migrate to a “Neutral” phase around February or March of the next year. “In other words, the prevalence of a new Niña phase – which would occur for the third consecutive harvest – would already be practically confirmed in the 2022/23 soybean and corn planting period in Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil”, points out Valor Soja. According to the portal, the fact that we are in the month of August makes it very unlikely that the cooling process of the equatorial Pacific can be reversed in the coming months, which is precisely what ...
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