Barley prices in Ukraine are higher than last year’s at the start of the season, but may decline

Published Jun 21, 2024

Tridge summary

The article provides an overview of the current state of barley markets in various countries and forecasts for the 2024/25 marketing year. It starts by noting the increased demand for Ukrainian barley due to reduced production in major exporting countries, but does not anticipate a boost in exports. Then, it discusses the stable purchase prices for feed barley in Ukraine, despite the rise in feed wheat and corn prices. The article also mentions the low demand for malt barley in Ukraine, along with export figures and trends from the beginning of the 2023/24 marketing year until mid-June.

Next, the article covers the early barley harvest in Romania, which has led to lower prices due to good yields, impacting Ukraine's competitiveness. It also reports on the USDA's reduced global barley production forecast for 2024/25, leading to lower production estimates for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine, but a rise in Australia. Additionally, it notes a decrease in the global barley consumption forecast, with adjustments in export predictions for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine, and a increase in Australia's export forecast. Finally, it mentions a decrease in the global barley ending stocks forecast, indicating a tight market outlook for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Lowered barley production forecasts in major exporting countries slightly increase the demand for barley in Ukraine, but there is no hope for a pickup in barley exports in the new season. The purchase prices for feed barley in Ukraine for delivery to the Black Sea ports did not receive significant support from the speculative growth of feed wheat and corn prices, which rose in May to 200 and 185 USD/t, respectively. However, barley prices rose from 150-155 USD/t to 160-165 USD/t or 7400-7500 UAH/t and are currently at this level at the beginning of the season. It is worth noting that last year, barley prices at the beginning of the season decreased to the level of 130-140 USD/t or 5200-5500 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports. The demand for malting barley in Ukraine this season will remain low, as maltsters have sufficient stocks of old crop and currently offer forward prices at 6500-7000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, compared to 8000-8500 UAH/t a year ago. Since the ...
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