Brazil's Finance Ministry predicts lower food inflation by year end

Published Feb 18, 2025

Tridge summary

The article outlines the factors influencing food inflation in Brazil, highlighting the impact of agricultural production and climate conditions. It is expected that a good harvest of soybeans, rice, and beans will help control cereal, bean, and soy derivative prices. The climate, expected to remain unchanged until March, will affect fruit and vegetable prices. The reversal of the slaughter cycle is predicted to slow down meat prices in 2025. However, drought and fires in 2024 have led to increases in coffee and milk prices. The Ministry of Finance forecasts a 4.8% increase in the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2025, with a slight reduction in GDP growth forecast from 2.5% to 2.3%. The article also mentions the uncertainties and potential impacts of the trade policies implemented by US President Trump on Brazil's economic growth in 2025.

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Original content

"We see, for example, that a good soybean harvest, rice and beans harvest will help (to curb) the prices of cereals, beans and soy derivatives," the Brazilian state news agency reported. "We also see that the climate is expected to remain unchanged until March, which will help the prices of products such as fruits and vegetables," said Raquel Nadal, deputy director of macroeconomic policies. He believes that the development of meat prices in 2025 will play a central role in the outcome of food inflation. The prices of meat products are expected to slow down, as the supply of livestock on the market increases due to the reversal of the slaughter cycle, that is, the end of the period when cows are sent to slaughterhouses after being kept for breeding and calves entering the market. "The biggest impact of the reversal of the slaughter cycle on inflation appears in 2024. Therefore, it is inevitable that these prices will slow down (in 2025). If meat prices rise by about 20% in 2024, ...

Source: Foodmate