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Bulls take control of CBOT soybeans while funds’ corn long nears three-year high -Braun

Published Jan 22, 2025

Tridge summary

Speculators have expressed optimism about the U.S. corn and soybean markets, with an increase in long positions for soybeans after over a year of net short positions. This shift is in response to the USDA's report of smaller harvest projections for both crops, leading to a surge in short covering and new long positions. Despite these developments, global soybean production and ending stocks are predicted to hit record highs for 2024-25. In contrast, corn ending stocks are expected to reach a decade low. Additionally, the opening week of Brazil's soybean harvest is being monitored closely, and unpredictable weather in Argentina is causing concern for crop conditions. Furthermore, the beginning of U.S. President Donald Trump's presidency has sparked worries over potential tariffs that could impact agricultural exports.
Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Speculators have been busy stuffing their bullish Chicago corn bets to the brim, but last week they gave soybeans a nod of confidence for the first time in over a year. Tightening global corn supplies have had investors’ attention for months, though it has recently become apparent that soybean stocks later this year may not be as ample as previously thought. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Jan. 10 revealed that the 2024 U.S. corn and soybean harvests were substantially smaller than analysts expected, causing an enormous round of short covering in CBOT soybeans. That helped establish a managed money net long position of 34,833 CBOT soybean futures and options contracts as of Jan. 14. That compares with a net short of 28,612 contracts a week earlier, and it is funds’ first bullish bean view since December 2023. Short covering was responsible for 71% of funds’ latest move in soybeans, but they also added a handful of gross longs, the most for any week since last May. ...
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