Canada: Cereal production expected to increase in 2025/26

Published May 19, 2025

Tridge summary

Statistics Canada's Planting Intentions Survey for the 2025/26 marketing year anticipates a 2% increase in cereal production to 62.7 million tonnes, with a 2.2% rise in the area planted, minus a marginal decrease in barley area. Despite a slight drop in corn and barley yields, improved soil moisture conditions are making drought less likely in the Prairie provinces. Total exports are projected to grow by 2.4%, led by wheat, while imports are expected to rise by less than 1%. Domestic demand forecasts show a slight increase in feed demand, despite small growth in cattle and pig herds.

Disclaimer: The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Production of wheat, corn, barley and oats is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year to reach 62.7 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year, assuming that the area planted with cereals will increase by 2.2% year-on-year to reach 27.5 million hectares. Only the barley area is expected to decrease, although only marginally. This forecast is based on Statistics Canada's Planting Intentions Survey, released March 12, 2025. Yields are assumed to remain in line with three-year averages, which means a slight decrease in corn and barley yields from the previous year. Soil moisture conditions across the Prairie provinces improved in March 2025 compared to the same period three years prior, increasing confidence that the Prairies will not experience a drought year. Total exports are expected to increase by 2.4% compared to the 2025/26 marketing year, mainly due to increased exports of wheat, but also barley, corn and oats. Total imports are forecast ...

Source: 3tres3