Challenges and pressures in the wheat market

The wheat market begins a period marked by adjustments following the advance of the national harvest, according to Itaú BBA. Even with the reduction in planted area, productivity maintained a favorable performance and production is expected to be slightly below the previous cycle, according to official estimates. The scenario, however, has gained uncertainty with the occurrence of intense rains, hail, and storms in the South of the country between the end of October and the beginning of November, which may result in negative revisions. The most relevant effects tend to fall on quality, given reports of a high presence of DON mycotoxin, a condition that may direct part of the volume to feed and generate losses for producers. In the international environment, the downward movement in prices also finds support in the increase in global supply. The USDA revised its projection upwards and estimates a record production of 829 million tons in 2025/26, up from 800 million in the previous ...